# Ephesus Research

> Independent financial research built on transparent assumptions, public models, documented sources, and conclusions that evolve with the evidence.

Ephesus Research publishes independent, open-access financial research, public valuation models, company records, source maps, versioned updates, and interactive audit tools.

## Access and reuse

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- Licence: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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## Research articles

- [The Hidden Credit Link in the AI Power Boom](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/frontier-model-credit-and-ai-power-financing): This report examines the credit channel linking frontier-model economics to data-center and power-development finance. Version 1.1 adds two explicit circuit breakers: proprietary providers can retain disproportionate monetization after losing token share, and stronger technology balance sheets can substitute for weaker standalone lab credit. The likely near-term result is financing bifurcation rather than uniform contraction.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/frontier-model-credit-and-ai-power-financing/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-09-03; version: 1.1.0; status: current
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Adjust the linked valuation assumptions and open a shareable scenario; Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Compare the linked bear, base, and bull buildout schedules and sensitivities; Review what changed between published versions; Download the underlying model in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/frontier-model-credit-and-ai-power-financing#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/frontier-model-credit-and-ai-power-financing#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/frontier-model-credit-and-ai-power-financing#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/frontier-model-credit-and-ai-power-financing#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#interactive-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#buildout-schedule | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/frontier-model-credit-and-ai-power-financing#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/frontier-model-credit-and-ai-power-financing#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/frontier-model-credit-and-ai-power-financing#change-log
  - Example shareable scenario: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model?scenario=base&wacc=11&terminalMultiple=12.5&revenuePerMw=7.68&utilization=75&delayMonths=0&debtFunding=70&shares=385&phase_iren-stage-480=100&phase_iren-stage-1210=82&phase_iren-stage-2310=55&phase_iren-stage-5000=30#interactive-model
- [Tokenization, Stablecoins and Collateral: What Changes for Markets and Investors](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/tokenized-collateral-stablecoins-dollar-macro-impact): The evidence supports a material market-infrastructure shift, but not literal QE or a systemic crypto-backed bank-credit multiplier. Effects are concentrated in short-term Treasury demand, dollar distribution, payments and collateral mobility.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/tokenized-collateral-stablecoins-dollar-macro-impact/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-22; version: 1.0.0; status: current
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Review what changed between published versions
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/tokenized-collateral-stablecoins-dollar-macro-impact#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/tokenized-collateral-stablecoins-dollar-macro-impact#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/tokenized-collateral-stablecoins-dollar-macro-impact#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/tokenized-collateral-stablecoins-dollar-macro-impact#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/tokenized-collateral-stablecoins-dollar-macro-impact#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/tokenized-collateral-stablecoins-dollar-macro-impact#assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/tokenized-collateral-stablecoins-dollar-macro-impact#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/tokenized-collateral-stablecoins-dollar-macro-impact#change-log
- [Ucore Five-Year Corporate SOTP: Louisiana Is the Core, but It Is Not the Whole Portfolio](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ucore-feedstock-flexibility-dcf-valuation): The Louisiana SMC is Ucore's principal operating asset, but it is not the entire portfolio. This five-year SOTP separately values Louisiana, a risked Canadian Sm/Gd SMC, Bokan-Dotson Ridge, external RapidSX optionality, corporate cash and overhead, then models the funding and dilution required to reach commercial scale.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ucore-feedstock-flexibility-dcf-valuation/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-22; version: 2.0.0; status: preliminary
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Review what changed between published versions
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ucore-feedstock-flexibility-dcf-valuation#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ucore-feedstock-flexibility-dcf-valuation#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ucore-feedstock-flexibility-dcf-valuation#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ucore-feedstock-flexibility-dcf-valuation#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ucore-feedstock-flexibility-dcf-valuation#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ucore-feedstock-flexibility-dcf-valuation#assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ucore-feedstock-flexibility-dcf-valuation#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ucore-feedstock-flexibility-dcf-valuation#change-log
- [IREN: Five-Year DCF and Buildout Valuation](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/iren-five-year-dcf-and-buildout-valuation): A current preliminary cohort-cash DCF mapped to the live Google Drive workbook. The analysis distinguishes IREN's official capacity stages, cohort financing, five-year primary GPU life, non-core post-contract tail economics, residual support, revenue sharing, and public community-model reference outputs.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/iren-five-year-dcf-and-buildout-valuation/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-12; version: 1.2.0-preliminary; status: current
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Adjust the linked valuation assumptions and open a shareable scenario; Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Compare the linked bear, base, and bull buildout schedules and sensitivities; Review what changed between published versions; Download the underlying model in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/iren-five-year-dcf-and-buildout-valuation#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/iren-five-year-dcf-and-buildout-valuation#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/iren-five-year-dcf-and-buildout-valuation#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/iren-five-year-dcf-and-buildout-valuation#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#interactive-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#buildout-schedule | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/iren-five-year-dcf-and-buildout-valuation#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/iren-five-year-dcf-and-buildout-valuation#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/iren-five-year-dcf-and-buildout-valuation#change-log
  - Example shareable scenario: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model?scenario=base&wacc=11&terminalMultiple=12.5&revenuePerMw=7.68&utilization=75&delayMonths=0&debtFunding=70&shares=385&phase_iren-stage-480=100&phase_iren-stage-1210=82&phase_iren-stage-2310=55&phase_iren-stage-5000=30#interactive-model
- [SpaceX AI: Probability-Weighted Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-valuation): A current probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts DCF based on SpaceX's filed segment results, disclosed AI contracts, buildout targets, capital requirements, dilution, institutional market checks, and an explicitly low-probability Elon Case.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-valuation/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-08; version: 2.0.1; status: current
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Compare the linked bear, base, and bull buildout schedules and sensitivities; Review what changed between published versions; Download the underlying model in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-valuation#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-valuation#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-valuation#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-valuation#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-valuation#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-valuation#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-valuation#change-log
- [Pulsar Helium: Topaz Development Valuation](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation): A source-backed valuation of Pulsar Helium's Topaz project that distinguishes contingent and prospective resources from reserves, short-duration test rates from sustainable commercial feed, the reserved equipment package from all-in installed cost, and project funding from common-shareholder value.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-05; version: 1.0.0-preliminary; status: current
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Review what changed between published versions
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation#assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation#change-log
- [NUAI: TCDC Site Economics and Tenant Scenarios](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-and-tenant-scenarios): A current preliminary TCDC model, mapped to the live Google Drive workbook, showing why nameplate capacity, tenant obligations, project financing, ownership, promote economics, and dilution must be modeled separately.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-and-tenant-scenarios/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-04; version: 1.0.0-preliminary; status: current
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Adjust the linked valuation assumptions and open a shareable scenario; Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Compare the linked bear, base, and bull buildout schedules and sensitivities; Review what changed between published versions; Download the underlying model in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-and-tenant-scenarios#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-and-tenant-scenarios#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-and-tenant-scenarios#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-and-tenant-scenarios#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#interactive-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#buildout-schedule | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-and-tenant-scenarios#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-and-tenant-scenarios#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-and-tenant-scenarios#change-log
  - Example shareable scenario: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model?scenario=base&wacc=11&terminalMultiple=12.12&revenuePerMw=1.8&utilization=90&delayMonths=0&debtFunding=75&shares=123&phase_tcdc-phase1=55&phase_tcdc-phase2=45&phase_tcdc-phase3=25#interactive-model
- [AI Infrastructure: Cap Rates Versus Long-Term Bond Yields](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ai-infrastructure-cap-rates-versus-long-term-bond-yields): A practical framework for understanding when higher long-duration yields should compress infrastructure values and when contracted NOI growth can offset part of the pressure.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ai-infrastructure-cap-rates-versus-long-term-bond-yields/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-02; version: 1.0.0-sample; status: preliminary
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Compare the linked bear, base, and bull buildout schedules and sensitivities; Review what changed between published versions; Download the underlying model in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ai-infrastructure-cap-rates-versus-long-term-bond-yields#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ai-infrastructure-cap-rates-versus-long-term-bond-yields#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ai-infrastructure-cap-rates-versus-long-term-bond-yields#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ai-infrastructure-cap-rates-versus-long-term-bond-yields#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ai-infrastructure-cap-rates-versus-long-term-bond-yields#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ai-infrastructure-cap-rates-versus-long-term-bond-yields#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/ai-infrastructure-cap-rates-versus-long-term-bond-yields#change-log
- [Construction and Financing Risk in Data-Center Valuation](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/construction-and-financing-risk-in-data-center-valuation): A practical framework for modeling capital draws, construction-period interest, contingencies, completion support, and dilution before stabilization.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/construction-and-financing-risk-in-data-center-valuation/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-02; version: 1.0.0-sample; status: current
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Adjust the linked valuation assumptions and open a shareable scenario; Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Compare the linked bear, base, and bull buildout schedules and sensitivities; Review what changed between published versions; Download the underlying model in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/construction-and-financing-risk-in-data-center-valuation#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/construction-and-financing-risk-in-data-center-valuation#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/construction-and-financing-risk-in-data-center-valuation#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/construction-and-financing-risk-in-data-center-valuation#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#interactive-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#buildout-schedule | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/construction-and-financing-risk-in-data-center-valuation#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/construction-and-financing-risk-in-data-center-valuation#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/construction-and-financing-risk-in-data-center-valuation#change-log
  - Example shareable scenario: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model?scenario=base&wacc=11&terminalMultiple=12.5&revenuePerMw=7.68&utilization=75&delayMonths=0&debtFunding=70&shares=385&phase_iren-stage-480=100&phase_iren-stage-1210=82&phase_iren-stage-2310=55&phase_iren-stage-5000=30#interactive-model
- [How to Interpret a Buildout-Based DCF](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/how-to-interpret-buildout-based-dcf): A reader's guide to phase-level DCFs, execution probabilities, timing, financing, dilution, and terminal value.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/how-to-interpret-buildout-based-dcf/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-02; version: 1.0.0; status: current
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Adjust the linked valuation assumptions and open a shareable scenario; Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Compare the linked bear, base, and bull buildout schedules and sensitivities; Review what changed between published versions; Download the underlying model in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/how-to-interpret-buildout-based-dcf#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/how-to-interpret-buildout-based-dcf#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/how-to-interpret-buildout-based-dcf#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/how-to-interpret-buildout-based-dcf#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#interactive-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#buildout-schedule | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/how-to-interpret-buildout-based-dcf#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/how-to-interpret-buildout-based-dcf#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/how-to-interpret-buildout-based-dcf#change-log
  - Example shareable scenario: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model?scenario=base&wacc=11&terminalMultiple=12.5&revenuePerMw=7.68&utilization=75&delayMonths=0&debtFunding=70&shares=385&phase_iren-stage-480=100&phase_iren-stage-1210=82&phase_iren-stage-2310=55&phase_iren-stage-5000=30#interactive-model
- [Natural Gas Deliverability and Data-Center Power Risk](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk): A methodology for distinguishing national reserves from the regional, hourly, and infrastructure-constrained gas deliverability that actually matters to data-center generation.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-02; version: 1.0.1-sample; status: preliminary
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Review what changed between published versions; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk#assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/natural-gas-deliverability-and-data-center-power-risk#change-log
- [Probability-Adjusting Undeveloped Power Capacity](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/probability-adjusting-undeveloped-power-capacity): A six-gate framework for assigning different present values to operating, contracted, funded, permitted, and conceptual capacity.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/probability-adjusting-undeveloped-power-capacity/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-02; version: 1.0.0; status: current
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Adjust the linked valuation assumptions and open a shareable scenario; Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Compare the linked bear, base, and bull buildout schedules and sensitivities; Review what changed between published versions; Download the underlying model in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/probability-adjusting-undeveloped-power-capacity#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/probability-adjusting-undeveloped-power-capacity#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/probability-adjusting-undeveloped-power-capacity#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/probability-adjusting-undeveloped-power-capacity#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#interactive-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#buildout-schedule | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/probability-adjusting-undeveloped-power-capacity#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/probability-adjusting-undeveloped-power-capacity#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/probability-adjusting-undeveloped-power-capacity#change-log
  - Example shareable scenario: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model?scenario=base&wacc=11&terminalMultiple=12.5&revenuePerMw=7.68&utilization=75&delayMonths=0&debtFunding=70&shares=385&phase_iren-stage-480=100&phase_iren-stage-1210=82&phase_iren-stage-2310=55&phase_iren-stage-5000=30#interactive-model
- [Why a Scenario Price Estimate Is Not the Same as Present Fair Value](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/scenario-price-estimate-vs-present-fair-value): A precise explanation of why a full-build output can be valid without implying that the company is worth that amount today.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/scenario-price-estimate-vs-present-fair-value/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-02; version: 1.0.0; status: current
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Adjust the linked valuation assumptions and open a shareable scenario; Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Compare the linked bear, base, and bull buildout schedules and sensitivities; Review what changed between published versions; Download the underlying model in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/scenario-price-estimate-vs-present-fair-value#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/scenario-price-estimate-vs-present-fair-value#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/scenario-price-estimate-vs-present-fair-value#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/scenario-price-estimate-vs-present-fair-value#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#interactive-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#buildout-schedule | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/scenario-price-estimate-vs-present-fair-value#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/scenario-price-estimate-vs-present-fair-value#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/scenario-price-estimate-vs-present-fair-value#change-log
  - Example shareable scenario: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model?scenario=base&wacc=11&terminalMultiple=12.5&revenuePerMw=7.68&utilization=75&delayMonths=0&debtFunding=70&shares=385&phase_iren-stage-480=100&phase_iren-stage-1210=82&phase_iren-stage-2310=55&phase_iren-stage-5000=30#interactive-model
- [WULF, CIFR, and IREN Comparative Economics](https://ephesusresearch.com/research/wulf-cifr-iren-comparative-economics): A demonstration peer analysis that normalizes capacity definitions, contract structures, capex responsibility, financing, and dilution before comparing valuation.
  - Markdown: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/wulf-cifr-iren-comparative-economics/markdown
  - Updated: 2026-08-02; version: 1.0.0-sample; status: preliminary
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Adjust the linked valuation assumptions and open a shareable scenario; Inspect the primary-source map and evidence classifications behind the conclusion; Compare the linked bear, base, and bull buildout schedules and sensitivities; Review what changed between published versions; Download the underlying model in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine the evidence and limitations that could weaken or invalidate the conclusion
  - Core evidence links: https://ephesusresearch.com/research/wulf-cifr-iren-comparative-economics#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/wulf-cifr-iren-comparative-economics#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/wulf-cifr-iren-comparative-economics#verified-facts | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/wulf-cifr-iren-comparative-economics#full-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#interactive-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#buildout-schedule | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/wulf-cifr-iren-comparative-economics#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/wulf-cifr-iren-comparative-economics#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/research/wulf-cifr-iren-comparative-economics#change-log
  - Example shareable scenario: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model?scenario=base&wacc=11&terminalMultiple=12.5&revenuePerMw=7.68&utilization=75&delayMonths=0&debtFunding=70&shares=385&phase_iren-stage-480=100&phase_iren-stage-1210=82&phase_iren-stage-2310=55&phase_iren-stage-5000=30#interactive-model

## Public models

- [IREN Five-Year DCF and Buildout Model](https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model): A current preliminary site-level cohort-cash DCF that separates official capacity milestones, contracted and merchant AI economics, construction and GPU replacement capital, cohort-specific financing, accounting life, post-contract economic tail, residual support, revenue sharing, dilution, residual mining cash flow, probability-weighted later sites, and public peer-project cross-checks.
  - JSON: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model/data.json
  - CSV: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model/data.csv
  - Updated: 2026-08-12; version: 1.2.0-preliminary; company: IREN
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Adjust valuation assumptions and generate a stable, shareable scenario URL; Inspect the source-to-assumption map and confidence labels; Compare bear, base, and bull scenarios with their execution conditions; Review the complete sensitivity matrices rather than a single extracted output; Review the version history and material model revisions; Download the underlying model representation in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine limitations and evidence that could invalidate the modeled conclusion
  - Core audit links: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#interactive-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#share-count-and-dilution | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#buildout-schedule | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model#change-log
  - Example shareable scenario: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model?scenario=base&wacc=11&terminalMultiple=12.5&revenuePerMw=7.68&utilization=75&delayMonths=0&debtFunding=70&shares=385&phase_iren-stage-480=100&phase_iren-stage-1210=82&phase_iren-stage-2310=55&phase_iren-stage-5000=30#interactive-model
- [NUAI TCDC Site Economics and Tenant Scenario Model](https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model): A current preliminary phase-by-phase TCDC model built from the live Google Drive workbook, separating data-center economics, power-SPV optionality, financing, ownership, promote, execution probabilities, and dilution.
  - JSON: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model/data.json
  - CSV: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model/data.csv
  - Updated: 2026-08-04; version: 1.0.0-preliminary; company: NUAI
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Adjust valuation assumptions and generate a stable, shareable scenario URL; Inspect the source-to-assumption map and confidence labels; Compare bear, base, and bull scenarios with their execution conditions; Review the complete sensitivity matrices rather than a single extracted output; Review the version history and material model revisions; Download the underlying model representation in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine limitations and evidence that could invalidate the modeled conclusion
  - Core audit links: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#interactive-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#share-count-and-dilution | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#buildout-schedule | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model#change-log
  - Example shareable scenario: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model?scenario=base&wacc=11&terminalMultiple=12.12&revenuePerMw=1.8&utilization=90&delayMonths=0&debtFunding=75&shares=123&phase_tcdc-phase1=55&phase_tcdc-phase2=45&phase_tcdc-phase3=25#interactive-model
- [AI Infrastructure Cap Rate and Duration Framework](https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework): An illustrative framework connecting NOI growth, cap rates, long-duration yields, financing spreads, and equity risk premiums.
  - JSON: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework/data.json
  - CSV: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework/data.csv
  - Updated: 2026-08-02; version: 0.4.0-sample; company: Cross-sector
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Inspect the source-to-assumption map and confidence labels; Compare bear, base, and bull scenarios with their execution conditions; Review the complete sensitivity matrices rather than a single extracted output; Review the version history and material model revisions; Download the underlying model representation in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine limitations and evidence that could invalidate the modeled conclusion
  - Core audit links: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ai-infrastructure-cap-rate-framework#change-log
- [SpaceX AI Probability-Weighted SOTP Model](https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model): A source-backed operating and valuation model that separates Space, Connectivity, AI Infrastructure, AI Applications, and orbital-compute optionality, with quarterly forecasts through 2028 and annual forecasts through 2035.
  - JSON: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model/data.json
  - CSV: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model/data.csv
  - Updated: 2026-08-08; version: 2.0.1; company: SPCX
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Inspect the source-to-assumption map and confidence labels; Compare bear, base, and bull scenarios with their execution conditions; Review the complete sensitivity matrices rather than a single extracted output; Review the version history and material model revisions; Download the underlying model representation in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine limitations and evidence that could invalidate the modeled conclusion
  - Core audit links: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-model#change-log
- [Pulsar Helium Integrated Topaz Valuation Model](https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model): A current preliminary, source-backed Topaz valuation that links resource classification, sustained-well deliverability, plant capacity, helium and CO2 economics, installed cost, taxes, financing, partner economics and dilution instead of valuing nameplate capacity in isolation.
  - JSON: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model/data.json
  - CSV: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model/data.csv
  - Updated: 2026-08-05; version: 2.0.0-preliminary; company: Pulsar Helium
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Inspect the source-to-assumption map and confidence labels; Compare bear, base, and bull scenarios with their execution conditions; Review the complete sensitivity matrices rather than a single extracted output; Review the version history and material model revisions; Download the underlying model representation in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine limitations and evidence that could invalidate the modeled conclusion
  - Core audit links: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model#change-log
- [Ucore Five-Year Corporate SOTP Valuation](https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation): A comprehensive 2026-stub and 2027-2031 valuation of Louisiana, a risked Canadian Sm/Gd SMC, Bokan-Dotson Ridge, external RapidSX optionality, corporate cash, overhead, financing need and dilution.
  - JSON: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation/data.json
  - CSV: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation/data.csv
  - Updated: 2026-08-22; version: 2.0.0; company: Ucore Rare Metals Inc.
  - Reasons to open the canonical page: Inspect the source-to-assumption map and confidence labels; Compare bear, base, and bull scenarios with their execution conditions; Review the complete sensitivity matrices rather than a single extracted output; Review the version history and material model revisions; Download the underlying model representation in spreadsheet, JSON, or CSV format; Examine limitations and evidence that could invalidate the modeled conclusion
  - Core audit links: https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation#conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation#audit-this-conclusion | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation#download-model | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation#scenario-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation#key-assumptions | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation#sensitivity-analysis | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation#source-map | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation#disconfirming-evidence | https://ephesusresearch.com/models/ucore-louisiana-smc-dcf-valuation#change-log

Full assumption-, phase-, sensitivity-, and article-section deep-link maps are published in catalog.json and the per-model JSON representation.

## Company hubs

- [IREN (IREN)](https://ephesusresearch.com/companies/iren): Demonstration profile for a vertically integrated digital-infrastructure operator with power, data-center, Bitcoin-mining, and AI-compute exposure.
- [New Era Energy & Digital (NUAI)](https://ephesusresearch.com/companies/nuai): Demonstration profile for a development-stage power and data-center campus strategy.
- [TeraWulf (WULF)](https://ephesusresearch.com/companies/wulf): Demonstration company profile emphasizing the distinction between owned generation exposure, data-center contracts, and mining economics.
- [Cipher Mining (CIFR)](https://ephesusresearch.com/companies/cifr): Demonstration profile for a power-site portfolio spanning operating mining and potential high-performance-compute development.
- [Applied Digital (APLD)](https://ephesusresearch.com/companies/apld): Demonstration profile for a capital-intensive data-center developer with long-duration customer and financing considerations.
- [SpaceX (SPCX)](https://ephesusresearch.com/companies/spacex): SpaceX is a vertically integrated launch, satellite-connectivity, artificial-intelligence, and compute-infrastructure company. Following the 2026 xAI acquisition, its reported segments are Space, Connectivity, and AI; Ephesus Research further separates AI Infrastructure from AI Applications for valuation.

## Citation guidance

When citing or sharing licensed material, identify Ephesus Research, link to the canonical page or exact evidence section where reasonably practicable, reference CC BY 4.0, and indicate material modifications or adaptations. Do not imply endorsement.