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audit aid, not a replacement for the site-level workbook.","Only phases included in the selected buildout-stage anchor affect execution value and financing need. Later phases are excluded from the current 480 MW and near-term 1.21 GW anchors.","Phase probabilities should change only when site-level customer, power, permit, financing, construction, GPU-delivery, commissioning, or acceptance evidence changes.","Funding mix changes modeled net debt against ownership- and probability-adjusted construction capital. Diluted shares must be adjusted separately for assumed equity issuance and other claims.","The full workbook deducts cohort growth capex when spent and a normalized GPU replacement reserve before terminal value; this simplified explorer applies transparent relative factors to the published stage value.","Power and other direct operating costs are embedded in project EBITDA margins, and ordinary working capital is not separately modeled in the current workbook."]},"model":{"slug":"iren-five-year-dcf-buildout-model","title":"IREN Five-Year DCF and Buildout Model","company":"IREN","ticker":"IREN","sector":"AI infrastructure and digital assets","modelType":"Discounted cash flow and buildout valuation","description":"A current preliminary site-level cohort-cash DCF that separates official capacity milestones, contracted and merchant AI economics, construction and GPU replacement capital, cohort-specific financing, accounting life, post-contract economic tail, residual support, revenue sharing, dilution, residual mining cash flow, probability-weighted later sites, and public peer-project cross-checks.","purpose":"Estimate conditional IREN shareholder value by buildout stage without treating the full power pipeline, community site schedule, or stabilized GPU earnings-power output as certain present value.","valuationDate":"2026-08-12","forecastPeriod":"2026E–2030E plus replacement-adjusted terminal value","currency":"USD","shareCountMillions":385,"netDebtMillions":4700,"version":"1.2.0-preliminary","updatedAt":"2026-08-12","author":"Ephesus Research","sourceCoverage":17,"developmentStage":"Current preliminary source-backed model","spreadsheetAvailable":true,"downloadAvailable":true,"scenariosAvailable":true,"publicSpreadsheetKey":"irenPublicSheet","excelDownloadKey":"irenExcel","sourceDataUrl":"/sources?company=IREN","methodologyUrl":"/methodology#valuation-methodology","relatedResearch":["iren-five-year-dcf-and-buildout-valuation","how-to-interpret-buildout-based-dcf","scenario-price-estimate-vs-present-fair-value"],"scenarios":[{"name":"bear","label":"Current 480 MW platform","impliedEnterpriseValue":15125.8,"impliedEquityValue":10425.8,"impliedValuePerShare":27.08,"probabilityWeight":0.3,"keyAssumptions":["Uses the current official 480 MW year-end 2026 AI Cloud stage","Excludes subsequent capacity optionality from the central stage value","Uses the base 385 million diluted-share and $4.7 billion adjusted-net-debt bridge","Cohort-cash DCF deducts modeled build capital when spent"],"primaryRisks":["Commissioning and customer acceptance","GPU pricing and utilization","Capital-structure reconciliation","Hardware replacement and residual value","Bitcoin price, network difficulty and residual-mining cash flow","Power-cost volatility embedded in the margin assumption"]},{"name":"base","label":"Near-term 1.21 GW stage","impliedEnterpriseValue":19699.6,"impliedEquityValue":14999.6,"impliedValuePerShare":38.96,"probabilityWeight":0.5,"keyAssumptions":["Uses IREN's official 1.21 GW 2027 in-build target as the strongest near-term stage","Applies site-specific execution probabilities to the full-build DCF","Uses disclosed Microsoft contract and GPU-financing anchors where applicable","Separates the normalized replacement-reserve floor from the cohort-cash estimate"],"primaryRisks":["Construction and GPU-delivery delays","Customer concentration and acceptance","Growth capex and financing availability","Dilution above the 385 million-share base case","Transmission, interconnection and commissioning slippage","GPU supply, technology refresh and residual-value uncertainty","Competitive pricing from hyperscalers and other AI infrastructure providers"]},{"name":"bull","label":"Official-capped 5.0 GW stage","impliedEnterpriseValue":30329.45,"impliedEquityValue":25629.45,"impliedValuePerShare":66.57,"probabilityWeight":0.2,"keyAssumptions":["Caps the strategic case at the disclosed up-to-5 GW framework","Probability-weights Sweetwater and later community-configured cohorts","Excludes the raw community 5.6 GW case from the central strategic stage","Retains replacement-adjusted terminal cash flow and explicit growth capex"],"primaryRisks":["Most later-stage capacity is not fully contracted","Power, permitting, construction, GPU supply, and financing constraints","Community site timing may not match the official development sequence","Terminal value and long-run GPU economics remain highly sensitive","A large majority of value depends on post-2030 cash flow","Power-cost, customer-concentration and technology-cycle risk","Dilution or senior financing claims above the modeled capital bridge"]}],"assumptions":[{"id":"iren-capacity-milestones","name":"Official near-term AI Cloud capacity milestones","value":"480 MW in 2026; 1.21 GW in 2027","unit":"stage-end AI Cloud MW","scenario":"base","sourceType":"company-guidance","sourceId":"src-iren-presentation","sourceLabel":"IREN Q3 FY26 results and buildout update","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"high","notes":"High confidence for aggregate targets; exact site allocation, commissioning, financing, and customer acceptance remain cohort-specific execution risks."},{"id":"iren-five-gw-framework","name":"Official strategic AI Cloud framework","value":5000,"unit":"MW maximum modeled official-capped stage","scenario":"bull","sourceType":"company-guidance","sourceId":"src-iren-nvidia-partnership","sourceLabel":"IREN and NVIDIA strategic partnership disclosure","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"medium","notes":"The up-to-5 GW framework is a strategic ceiling, not a fully contracted backlog or proof of the community model's exact site schedule."},{"id":"iren-microsoft-contract","name":"Microsoft contracted AI Cloud economics","value":"$9.7B contract, $1.94B annual revenue, 85% project EBITDA, $5.8B GPU capex","unit":"disclosed contract anchors","scenario":"base","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-iren-microsoft-contract","sourceLabel":"SEC-filed Microsoft contract materials","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"high","notes":"Anchors the contracted Horizon cohort. Detailed operating costs, remedies, delivery acceptance, renewal, and end-of-term residual value remain material."},{"id":"iren-gpu-financing","name":"Microsoft GPU financing bridge","value":"$1.94B prepayment plus $3.65B debt at 6.00%; 3.31% disclosed blended funding cost; approximately 96% nominal GPU-capex coverage","unit":"cohort financing reference","scenario":"base","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-iren-gpu-financing","sourceLabel":"IREN GPU financing announcement and filing","asOfDate":"2026-08-12","confidence":"high","notes":"The customer prepayment and senior debt are modeled separately. The 3.31% average financing cost is not treated as the debt coupon, and future cohorts are not assumed to obtain identical financing."},{"id":"iren-discount-rate","name":"Equity discount rate","value":11,"unit":"%","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceLabel":"Live workbook base assumption","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"The workbook ranges from 9.5% to 14.0% across scenarios. This is a required-return assumption, not company guidance."},{"id":"iren-terminal-multiple","name":"Terminal replacement-adjusted FCF multiple","value":12.5,"unit":"x","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceLabel":"Live workbook terminal-value assumption","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"Applied after deducting a normalized five-year GPU replacement reserve net of residual value; terminal dependence remains material."},{"id":"iren-utilization","name":"Merchant and contracted utilization","value":"75% merchant; 100% contracted","unit":"%","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-community-gpu","sourceLabel":"Community GPU defaults and live workbook adjustments","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"Realized utilization, net pricing, discounts, downtime, and customer mix are not fully disclosed for the modeled merchant fleet."},{"id":"iren-ai-margin","name":"AI project EBITDA margin","value":"82% merchant; 85% contracted","unit":"%","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-microsoft-contract","sourceLabel":"Microsoft contracted margin anchor plus merchant haircut","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"medium","notes":"The contracted anchor is source-backed; the merchant margin remains an analyst assumption before corporate overhead and replacement capital."},{"id":"iren-gpu-residual","name":"GPU primary life and Year-5 residual value","value":"Five-year primary life; 12.5% unsupported residual; Years 6-8 tail excluded from core","unit":"base case","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-live-workbook","sourceLabel":"Live workbook replacement-capital and GPU Capital Duration tabs","asOfDate":"2026-08-12","confidence":"low","notes":"The five-year period is the core accounting and economic normalization, not a hard physical shutdown date. Any explicit post-Year-5 cash-flow tail must replace part of the residual assumption rather than being added to it in full."},{"id":"iren-site-probabilities","name":"Later-site execution probabilities","value":"85% Horizon 5-6; 80% Childress 7-10; 55% SW1; 35% SW2/Oklahoma; 25% Nostrum; 20% Kiowa","unit":"% by cohort","scenario":"base","sourceType":"inference","sourceId":"src-iren-community-sites","sourceLabel":"Official evidence mapped to community site cohorts","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"Operating and contracted cohorts receive 100%. Later probabilities should change only with contracts, power, permits, financing, construction, or commissioning evidence."},{"id":"iren-share-count","name":"Base diluted share count","value":385,"unit":"millions","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-filing","sourceLabel":"Filed share count plus modeled dilution","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"medium","notes":"The filed starting point is approximately 357.4 million shares. The model adds equity awards, converts, financing dilution, and other potential claims to reach the base denominator."},{"id":"iren-net-debt","name":"Adjusted net debt","value":4700,"unit":"USD millions","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-filing","sourceLabel":"Filed capital structure plus financing bridge","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"medium","notes":"Must be refreshed for post-quarter cash, restricted cash, convertible debt, GPU financing, lease liabilities, prepayments, and subsequent issuance."},{"id":"iren-mining-runoff","name":"Mining and legacy EBITDA runoff","value":"$250M / $120M / $60M / $20M / $0M","unit":"2026E–2030E","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-filing","sourceLabel":"Operating history plus live workbook runoff assumption","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"Bitcoin price, difficulty, power cost, hardware efficiency, conversion timing, and future mining strategy can materially change this contribution."},{"id":"iren-site-capex","name":"Data-center and GPU capital cost","value":"$15.0M per critical IT MW for hyperscaler infrastructure; $3.2M per IT MW for merchant infrastructure; GPU cost varies by cohort","unit":"USD millions per IT MW plus GPU systems","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-community-sites","sourceLabel":"Live workbook site inputs and public community model","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"The Microsoft $5.8B GPU-system anchor is disclosed. Later-site construction scope, escalation, contingency, equipment mix, customer funding, and overruns remain conditional assumptions."},{"id":"iren-corporate-costs","name":"Corporate and platform operating costs","value":"$220M fixed SG&A plus 3.0% of revenue","unit":"base case","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-live-workbook","sourceLabel":"Scenario Inputs and Consolidated DCF","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"The model applies explicit fixed and variable corporate costs outside project EBITDA. Future organizational scale, support costs, stock compensation, and overhead allocation remain uncertain."},{"id":"iren-maintenance-capex","name":"Data-center maintenance capital","value":0.2,"unit":"USD millions per IT MW-year","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-live-workbook","sourceLabel":"Scenario Inputs and Consolidated DCF","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"This sustaining reserve is separate from modeled GPU replacement capital. Actual maintenance spending may differ by site, design, age, and customer responsibility."},{"id":"iren-cash-taxes","name":"Base cash-tax schedule","value":"3% / 3% / 5% / 10% / 15%","unit":"2026E-2030E","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-live-workbook","sourceLabel":"Scenario Inputs and Consolidated DCF","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"A normalized cash-tax schedule is used rather than a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction tax model. NOL use, tax incentives, financing deductions, and geographic profit mix can materially change cash taxes."},{"id":"iren-power-opex-treatment","name":"Power and direct operating-cost treatment","value":"Embedded in project EBITDA margins; not forecast as separate line items","unit":"model treatment","scenario":"all","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-live-workbook","sourceLabel":"Site Inputs and Consolidated DCF","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"The model does not expose a separate power-price, networking, cooling, support, or downtime forecast on the website. Those costs are captured indirectly through the 82% merchant and 85% contracted project EBITDA-margin assumptions."},{"id":"iren-working-capital-treatment","name":"Working-capital treatment","value":"Not separately modeled","unit":"model limitation","scenario":"all","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-live-workbook","sourceLabel":"Workbook scope review","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"low","notes":"Customer prepayments and major financing flows are modeled, but ordinary receivables, payables, inventory, and other working-capital changes are not projected as a separate cash-flow schedule."},{"id":"iren-terminal-dependence","name":"Value beyond the explicit forecast period","value":82.5,"unit":"% of 1.21 GW probability-weighted enterprise value","scenario":"base","sourceType":"inference","sourceId":"src-iren-live-workbook","sourceLabel":"Consolidated DCF reconciliation","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"high","notes":"Approximately 82.5% of the 1.21 GW probability-weighted cohort enterprise value comes from value after the explicit 2026-2030 cash-flow period. The comparable figure for the 5.0 GW probability-weighted stage is approximately 82.1%."},{"id":"iren-gpu-capital-recovery","name":"Microsoft cohort yield after GPU capital recovery","value":"18.7% headline EBITDA yield; 7.2% after five-year GPU capital recovery","unit":"yield on $8.8B modeled project cost","scenario":"base","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceId":"src-iren-live-workbook","sourceLabel":"GPU Residual & NOI and Peer Cap Rates","asOfDate":"2026-07-30","confidence":"medium","notes":"The adjustment reserves enough annual cash to recover the $5.8B GPU investment net of a 12.5% year-five residual. It is more comparable with long-duration infrastructure yields than headline project EBITDA, but the asset layers still differ."},{"id":"iren-gpu-economic-tail","name":"Post-contract GPU economic-tail sensitivity","value":"Base: one Year-6 tail at 50% price retention, 60% utilization and 10% broad revenue-share stress","unit":"non-core sensitivity","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-iren-live-workbook","sourceLabel":"GPU Capital Duration tab","asOfDate":"2026-08-12","confidence":"low","notes":"The Base tail produces approximately $524M of net revenue, $367M of EBITDA and $196M of present value in the workbook, but it is excluded from the core DCF. It may be used only instead of an equivalent portion of Year-5 residual value."},{"id":"iren-nvidia-supported-residual","name":"NVIDIA-supported residual-value sensitivity","value":"0% IREN-specific support in core; 25% support ceiling; 18.75% expected residual at 50% eligibility","unit":"% of eligible GPU capex","scenario":"all","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-nvidia-ai-factory-financing-2026-08-10","sourceLabel":"NVIDIA financing-platform announcement and GPU Capital Duration tab","asOfDate":"2026-08-12","confidence":"low","notes":"No public evidence establishes IREN eligibility, support recipient, covered value, legal enforceability, term, revenue-share basis, ownership or end-of-term rights. The 25% figure is a sensitivity ceiling, not a Base residual assumption."},{"id":"iren-nvidia-revenue-share","name":"NVIDIA revenue-share sensitivity","value":"0% for signed contracts absent disclosure; 0% / 5% / 10% / 15% for future supported cohorts","unit":"% of applicable revenue","scenario":"all","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-nvidia-ai-factory-financing-2026-08-10","sourceLabel":"GPU Capital Duration revenue-share offset sensitivity","asOfDate":"2026-08-12","confidence":"low","notes":"A broad 10% share of the $1.94B annual Horizon revenue would surrender approximately $194M per year, more than the $145M annual capital-recovery benefit of moving residual value from 12.5% to 25%. Actual cost may be lower if sharing applies only to backstopped capacity."},{"id":"iren-gpu-power-opportunity-cost","name":"Legacy GPU redeployment versus replacement gate","value":"Replace when new-fleet risk-adjusted cash contribution per critical kW exceeds the legacy fleet after upgrade capex and downtime","unit":"decision rule","scenario":"all","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-nvidia-rubin-platform","sourceLabel":"GPU Capital Duration power opportunity-cost gate","asOfDate":"2026-08-12","confidence":"low","notes":"An older GPU can remain profitable yet be economically obsolete when a newer system produces more contribution from scarce powered capacity. NVIDIA performance claims are used only as a stress, not realized IREN economics."}],"buildoutPhases":[{"id":"iren-stage-480","site":"Operating and contracted portfolio","phase":"Current 480 MW stage","grossPowerCapacityMw":480,"usableItCapacityMw":360,"energizationDate":"2026","revenueStartDate":"2026","utilization":0.85,"annualRevenuePerMw":7.72,"ebitdaMargin":0.84,"capexMillions":0,"financingAssumptions":"Treated as the opening/current platform for stage analysis; subsequent growth capital is modeled in later cohorts and the capital-structure bridge.","ownershipInterest":1,"probabilityOfCompletion":1,"riskAdjustedValueMillions":10425.8,"valuePerShare":27.08},{"id":"iren-stage-1210","site":"Childress and near-term expansion cohorts","phase":"Increment to 1.21 GW","grossPowerCapacityMw":730,"usableItCapacityMw":503.6,"energizationDate":"2027","revenueStartDate":"2027–2028","utilization":0.85,"annualRevenuePerMw":7.68,"ebitdaMargin":0.84,"capexMillions":19059.6,"financingAssumptions":"Includes explicit 2026–2027 cohort build capital; Microsoft prepayment and GPU financing are modeled separately from residual corporate funding and dilution.","ownershipInterest":1,"probabilityOfCompletion":0.82,"riskAdjustedValueMillions":4573.8,"valuePerShare":11.88},{"id":"iren-stage-2310","site":"Sweetwater and medium-term cohorts","phase":"Increment from 1.21 GW to 2.31 GW","grossPowerCapacityMw":1100,"usableItCapacityMw":733.4,"energizationDate":"2028","revenueStartDate":"2028–2029","utilization":0.75,"annualRevenuePerMw":7.11,"ebitdaMargin":0.84,"capexMillions":25167.9,"financingAssumptions":"Community site timing is probability-weighted; customer contracting, project financing, GPU procurement, and construction remain required.","ownershipInterest":1,"probabilityOfCompletion":0.55,"riskAdjustedValueMillions":5143.6,"valuePerShare":13.36},{"id":"iren-stage-5000","site":"Sweetwater and later strategic pipeline","phase":"Increment from 2.31 GW to official-capped 5.0 GW","grossPowerCapacityMw":2690,"usableItCapacityMw":1793.3,"energizationDate":"2029–2030+","revenueStartDate":"2029–2031+","utilization":0.7,"annualRevenuePerMw":6.78,"ebitdaMargin":0.85,"capexMillions":61547.1,"financingAssumptions":"Substantial external funding, contracts, equipment, permitting, and construction are assumed; Kiowa is capped so the official strategic stage does not exceed 5.0 GW.","ownershipInterest":1,"probabilityOfCompletion":0.3,"riskAdjustedValueMillions":5486.25,"valuePerShare":14.25}],"sensitivities":[{"id":"iren-wacc-terminal","title":"Estimated value per share by buildout stage and valuation treatment","rowLabel":"Stage-end AI Cloud MW","columnLabel":"Valuation treatment","rows":[480,1210,2310,3910,5000,5600],"columns":["Base full","Base probability weighted","Normalized reserve floor"],"values":[[27.08,27.08,10.75],[44.05,38.96,10.92],[69.91,52.32,18.79],[100.22,62.93,26.24],[116.58,66.57,29.44],[125.59,68.37,31.02]],"unit":"USD/share","note":"The 5.6 GW row is the raw community configuration and exceeds the official up-to-5 GW framework; it is retained only as a reference case."},{"id":"iren-revenue-utilization","title":"Cohort-cash DCF versus community stabilized earnings-power reference","rowLabel":"Stage-end AI Cloud MW","columnLabel":"Model output","rows":[480,1210,2310,3910,5000,5600],"columns":["DCF probability weighted","Community earnings-power reference"],"values":[[27.08,94.63],[38.96,236.44],[52.32,340.26],[62.93,435.72],[66.57,442.54],[68.37,494.27]],"unit":"USD/share","note":"Community outputs are stabilized forward earnings-power references, not discounted present-value conclusions. The live workbook reproduces the public code separately from the DCF."},{"id":"iren-delay-dilution","title":"Near-term stage range by scenario","rowLabel":"Official stage","columnLabel":"Scenario","rows":["2026 / 480 MW","2027 / 1.21 GW"],"columns":["Bear probability weighted","Base probability weighted","Bull probability weighted"],"values":[[0,27.08,63.39],[0,38.96,113.83]],"unit":"USD/share","note":"The live workbook displays dashes where the bear cohort-cash result is non-positive; zero is used here only as the machine-readable placeholder for that displayed dash."},{"id":"iren-capital-structure","title":"1.21 GW probability-weighted value: diluted shares versus adjusted net debt","rowLabel":"Diluted shares (millions)","columnLabel":"Adjusted net debt (USD billions)","rows":[350,375,385,410,435],"columns":[0,2,4,4.7,6,8],"values":[[56.29,50.57,44.86,42.86,39.14,33.43],[52.53,47.2,41.87,40,36.53,31.2],[51.17,45.97,40.78,38.96,35.58,30.39],[48.05,43.17,38.29,36.59,33.41,28.54],[45.29,40.69,36.09,34.48,31.49,26.9]],"unit":"USD/share","note":"Uses the same underlying 1.21 GW probability-weighted enterprise value. It isolates how the capital stack and denominator change common-share value."},{"id":"iren-gpu-residual-yield","title":"Microsoft cohort capital recovery: year-five GPU residual value","rowLabel":"Year-five GPU residual","columnLabel":"Capital-adjusted metric","rows":[0,5,10,12.5,15,20,25,30],"columns":["Cash margin","Yield on modeled cost"],"values":[[25.2,5.6],[28.2,6.2],[31.2,6.9],[32.7,7.2],[34.2,7.5],[37.2,8.2],[40.2,8.9],[43.1,9.5]],"unit":"%","note":"Based on the disclosed $1.94B annual contract-revenue and $5.8B GPU-capex anchors plus $3.0B of modeled data-center capex. Residual value includes possible resale or continued use; it is not guaranteed cash proceeds."},{"id":"iren-gpu-financing-duration","title":"GPU financing duration per $1.0 billion of principal","rowLabel":"Financing case","columnLabel":"Capital-service metric","rows":["5 years / 7%","6 years / 6.5%","7 years / 6%"],"columns":["Annual debt service","Total interest"],"values":[[237.6,188.1],[201.7,210.3],[175.3,227.1]],"unit":"USD millions","note":"Longer amortization lowers annual debt service but can increase total interest and leaves debt outstanding during post-contract tail years. These are financing sensitivities, not disclosed IREN terms outside the Microsoft cohort."},{"id":"iren-gpu-economic-duration","title":"Horizon capital recovery: primary life and residual sensitivity","rowLabel":"Primary-life / residual case","columnLabel":"Capital-adjusted metric","rows":["5 years / 12.5%","5 years / 25%","6 years / 20%","7 years / 25%"],"columns":["Annual cash flow","Cash per critical kW-month"],"values":[[634,264],[779,325],[876,365],[1028,428]],"unit":"USD millions and USD/kW-month","note":"The six- and seven-year rows hold project EBITDA constant and are intentionally aggressive architecture sensitivities. The five-year / 12.5% row remains the core Base treatment."},{"id":"iren-nvidia-revenue-share-offset","title":"Residual-support benefit versus broad NVIDIA revenue-share stress","rowLabel":"Revenue share","columnLabel":"Annual economic effect","rows":[0,5,10,15],"columns":["Revenue surrendered","Net support benefit"],"values":[[0,145],[97,48],[194,-49],[291,-146]],"unit":"USD millions per year","note":"Compares the $145M annual capital-recovery benefit of moving the Horizon residual from 12.5% to 25% with a revenue share applied to the full $1.94B annual revenue. A share limited to backstopped capacity would be less costly."}],"limitations":["The public model is mapped to the live Google Drive workbook and primary-source anchors, but later-site timing, GPU configurations, unit capex, merchant pricing, and several execution probabilities remain community-derived or analyst assumptions.","IREN's 480 MW and 1.21 GW milestones and up-to-5 GW strategic framework are not equivalent to a fully commissioned, fully utilized, or fully contracted five-gigawatt platform.","The Microsoft contract and GPU financing provide strong anchors for one contracted cohort; their economics should not be applied automatically to merchant or uncontracted later sites.","The cohort-cash DCF deducts modeled growth capex when spent and the terminal year deducts a normalized GPU replacement reserve. Actual fleet age, refresh cycles, residual values, buyback rights, and redeployment economics could materially change value.","The 385 million diluted-share and $4.7 billion adjusted-net-debt bridge require continuous reconciliation to filings, prepayments, GPU financing, convertibles, equity awards, restricted cash, leases, and subsequent issuance.","Community earnings-power outputs are reproduced for comparison but are not treated as present intrinsic value because they do not fully discount timing, construction capital, financing, dilution, and replacement capital.","Thirty-one core checks and nine GPU-duration controls validate formulas, reconciliations, core-value invariance and the absence of tail/residual double counting. They do not prove forecast accuracy or project completion.","Power, cooling, networking, customer support, downtime and other direct operating costs are embedded in project EBITDA-margin assumptions rather than forecast as separate line items. This limits independent testing of power-price and operating-cost volatility from the website output alone.","Ordinary working capital is not separately modeled. Customer prepayments and major financing flows are included, but receivables, payables, inventory and other working-capital changes are not projected as a dedicated schedule.","Approximately 82.5% of the 1.21 GW probability-weighted cohort enterprise value and 82.1% of the 5.0 GW probability-weighted cohort enterprise value come from value after the explicit 2026-2030 cash-flow period. Terminal assumptions therefore have a material effect on the conclusion.","The workbook includes a public project-yield comparison with WULF and CIFR, but it does not present a complete public-company trading-comps bridge using consensus EV/EBITDA, EV/MW, or equity-value multiples. The peer projects also own different economic layers and have different contract durations.","Scenario and phase weights are judgmental research inputs, not measured probabilities. A market-price move, repeated management target, or community-model schedule does not by itself justify raising completion probabilities.","The five-year primary life is an accounting and capital-recovery normalization, not a hard physical shutdown date. Post-Year-5 tail cash flows remain non-core until observable recontracting, secondary pricing and utilization evidence exists.","The NVIDIA financing-platform announcement does not establish IREN eligibility or a 25% residual guarantee. Support recipient, covered value, term, legal enforceability, revenue-share basis, GPU ownership and end-of-term rights remain unknown.","Explicit Years 6-8 tail cash flows and Year-5 residual value cannot both be counted in full. The workbook's core uses residual-only treatment and keeps the explicit tail outside the valuation controls.","Easier GPU financing can benefit IREN while also expanding competitor supply, compressing merchant rates and accelerating replacement cycles."],"illustrative":false}}