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The diluted-share control must be adjusted separately to reflect assumed equity issuance.","Phase probabilities should move only when specific evidence changes: customer, financing, power, permits, construction, or revenue commencement."]},"model":{"slug":"nuai-tcdc-site-economics-model","title":"NUAI TCDC Site Economics and Tenant Scenario Model","company":"NUAI","ticker":"NUAI","sector":"Data centers and behind-the-meter power","modelType":"Site-level economics and probability-adjusted NAV","description":"A current preliminary phase-by-phase TCDC model built from the live Google Drive workbook, separating data-center economics, power-SPV optionality, financing, ownership, promote, execution probabilities, and dilution.","purpose":"Estimate conditional shareholder value from TCDC without giving full present credit to uncontracted nameplate capacity, while keeping every material ownership, financing, power, and execution assumption explicit.","valuationDate":"2026-08-04","forecastPeriod":"2028–2032 phase starts plus long-duration lease cash flow","currency":"USD","shareCountMillions":123,"netDebtMillions":35,"version":"1.0.0-preliminary","updatedAt":"2026-08-04","author":"Ephesus Research","sourceCoverage":7,"developmentStage":"Current preliminary source-backed model","spreadsheetAvailable":true,"downloadAvailable":false,"scenariosAvailable":true,"publicSpreadsheetKey":"nuaiPublicSheet","sourceDataUrl":"/sources?company=NUAI","methodologyUrl":"/methodology#project-stage-risk-adjustment","relatedResearch":["nuai-tcdc-site-economics-and-tenant-scenarios","probability-adjusting-undeveloped-power-capacity","construction-and-financing-risk-in-data-center-valuation"],"scenarios":[{"name":"bear","label":"Current platform","impliedEnterpriseValue":444.3,"impliedEquityValue":444.3,"impliedValuePerShare":3.61,"probabilityWeight":0.3,"keyAssumptions":["Current pre-lease and pre-financing execution probabilities are retained","Base no-promote economics are used from the live workbook","Later phases remain heavily probability-adjusted","HoldCo bridge and diluted-share assumptions remain explicit"],"primaryRisks":["No executed tenant lease disclosed","Power and generation documents remain incomplete","Project financing is milestone-dependent","Direct economic ownership is still an assumption"]},{"name":"base","label":"Phase 1 signed + later options","impliedEnterpriseValue":691.2,"impliedEquityValue":691.2,"impliedValuePerShare":5.62,"probabilityWeight":0.5,"keyAssumptions":["Phase 1 lease materially de-risks the first delivery block","Later phases retain option value but are not treated as completed","Debt remains sized by loan-to-cost and DSCR constraints","Promote value is excluded from the central no-promote output"],"primaryRisks":["Lease terms may transfer less value to NUAI than gross capacity implies","Parent guarantees or equity needs could be higher","Construction and energization may slip","Share dilution could exceed the modeled denominator"]},{"name":"bull","label":"Full 1.4 GW execution","impliedEnterpriseValue":1147.7,"impliedEquityValue":1147.7,"impliedValuePerShare":9.33,"probabilityWeight":0.2,"keyAssumptions":["All three TCDC phases are treated as completed or contracted under base economics","Tenant/direct funding reduces landlord-funded capex","Power-SPV value remains separated from data-center sponsor value","No-promote value is shown before optional sponsor upside"],"primaryRisks":["Full-campus execution is not currently evidenced","Power, fuel, interconnection, emissions, and permits can constrain delivery","Final GP/LP waterfall could dilute sponsor economics","Comparable AI lease benchmarks may not translate to NUAI"]}],"assumptions":[{"id":"nuai-phase-plan","name":"TCDC phase plan and total nameplate scale","value":"200 MW Phase 1, 450 MW Phase 2, 750 MW Phase 3; 1.4 GW total","unit":"MW","scenario":"base","sourceType":"company-guidance","sourceId":"src-nuai-presentation","sourceLabel":"SEC-filed Q1 2026 business update","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"high","notes":"High confidence for the disclosed company plan; low confidence for final lease, permits, financing, construction, and distributable economics."},{"id":"nuai-critical-mw","name":"Critical IT capacity conversion","value":"190 / 427.5 / 712.5","unit":"critical MW by phase","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-nuai-presentation","sourceLabel":"SEC-filed phase plan plus model conversion","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"medium","notes":"The live workbook maps the 1.4 GW nameplate plan to 1.33 GW critical MW; final usable load depends on redundancy, cooling, auxiliary load, and tenant design."},{"id":"nuai-btm-power","name":"Phase 2 behind-the-meter power architecture","value":"450 MW BTM plan","unit":"MW","scenario":"base","sourceType":"company-guidance","sourceId":"src-nuai-450mw-btm","sourceLabel":"New Era 450 MW BTM announcement","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"medium","notes":"Supports separating data-center SPV value from power-SPV value; definitive purchase documents, fuel, permits, and retained economics remain unverified."},{"id":"nuai-lease-revenue","name":"Starting lease revenue per critical MW-year","value":1.8,"unit":"USD millions/MW-year","scenario":"base","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceId":"src-wulf-anthropic-benchmark","sourceLabel":"WULF / Anthropic lease benchmark","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"low","notes":"Comparable lease economics are used only to calibrate a range; they do not establish NUAI-specific rent, term, escalators, credit support, pass-throughs, or remedies."},{"id":"nuai-capex-funded","name":"Landlord-funded data-center capex per critical MW","value":11.25,"unit":"USD millions/MW","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceLabel":"Live workbook capex assumption","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"low","notes":"Derived from $15.0mm gross capex per critical MW and 25% tenant/direct funding. Actual EPC scope, tenant funding, contingency, and overruns are not disclosed."},{"id":"nuai-power-pass-through","name":"Power recovery / pass-through","value":98.5,"unit":"%","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceLabel":"Live workbook power-cost assumption","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"low","notes":"Base case assumes most energy cost is reimbursed or indexed. Executed lease language and actual power/fuel economics remain required before upgrading confidence."},{"id":"nuai-project-debt","name":"Project debt sizing constraints","value":"75% LTC, 1.40x minimum DSCR, 8.25% coupon","unit":"base case","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-nuai-filing","sourceLabel":"NUAI filing and workbook financing assumptions","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"low","notes":"Debt is constrained rather than assumed fully available. Binding debt commitments, collateral, guarantees, reserves, covenants, and draw conditions are still required."},{"id":"nuai-direct-share","name":"Direct NUAI data-center economic share","value":"25% / 18% / 12%","unit":"Phase 1 / Phase 2 / Phase 3 base case","scenario":"base","sourceType":"inference","sourceId":"src-local-permit","sourceLabel":"Private archive economics synthesis and GP/LP disclosure","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"low","notes":"This is one of the most important model inputs. It remains an explicit assumption until final ownership, waterfall, preferred return, catch-up, GP split, and asset-sale rights are disclosed."},{"id":"nuai-execution-probability","name":"Current execution probabilities","value":"55% / 45% / 25%","unit":"Phase 1 / Phase 2 / Phase 3 base case","scenario":"base","sourceType":"inference","sourceLabel":"Project-stage risk framework","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"low","notes":"Probabilities should rise only with evidence for customer, financing, power, permits, construction, and revenue commencement."},{"id":"nuai-promote","name":"Sponsor promote economics","value":"12% promote, 8% LP hurdle, 50% NUAI share of GP promote pool","unit":"base case","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceLabel":"Live workbook promote assumption","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"low","notes":"Promote value remains separated from no-promote valuation because preferred return, catch-up, fee offset, and distribution tiers are not disclosed."},{"id":"nuai-share-count","name":"Diluted share count","value":123,"unit":"millions","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-nuai-filing","sourceLabel":"Filing context and scenario share-count model","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"low","notes":"The denominator must be reconciled to current basic shares, warrants, options, RSUs, converts, ATM or equity-facility issuance, and financing dilution before any final publication."},{"id":"nuai-holdco-bridge","name":"HoldCo bridge","value":-35,"unit":"USD millions","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-nuai-filing","sourceLabel":"Filing context and live workbook bridge","asOfDate":"2026-08-04","confidence":"low","notes":"Adjusts for cash, overhead, Macquarie friction, legacy assets, and dilution reserve. It remains a bridge item until latest cash, debt, fees, and post-quarter financing are reconciled."}],"buildoutPhases":[{"id":"tcdc-phase1","site":"TCDC","phase":"Phase 1","grossPowerCapacityMw":200,"usableItCapacityMw":190,"energizationDate":"2028","revenueStartDate":"2028","utilization":0.9,"annualRevenuePerMw":1.8,"ebitdaMargin":0.72,"capexMillions":2137.5,"financingAssumptions":"Adjacent generation / existing POI; data-center SPV; base case 75% debt cap constrained by DSCR; 25% direct NUAI economic share; no direct power-SPV share.","ownershipInterest":0.25,"probabilityOfCompletion":0.55,"riskAdjustedValueMillions":173.4,"valuePerShare":1.41},{"id":"tcdc-phase2","site":"TCDC","phase":"Phase 2","grossPowerCapacityMw":450,"usableItCapacityMw":427.5,"energizationDate":"2030","revenueStartDate":"2030","utilization":0.88,"annualRevenuePerMw":1.8,"ebitdaMargin":0.7,"capexMillions":4809.4,"financingAssumptions":"450 MW BTM via Thunderhead / Turbine-X; separate power-SPV economics; base case 18% direct data-center share and 8% retained power-SPV share.","ownershipInterest":0.18,"probabilityOfCompletion":0.45,"riskAdjustedValueMillions":200.3,"valuePerShare":1.63},{"id":"tcdc-phase3","site":"TCDC","phase":"Phase 3","grossPowerCapacityMw":750,"usableItCapacityMw":712.5,"energizationDate":"2032","revenueStartDate":"2032","utilization":0.8,"annualRevenuePerMw":1.8,"ebitdaMargin":0.68,"capexMillions":8015.6,"financingAssumptions":"Additional BTM plus bidirectional grid; later-stage expansion; base case 12% direct data-center share and 5% retained power-SPV share.","ownershipInterest":0.12,"probabilityOfCompletion":0.25,"riskAdjustedValueMillions":105.6,"valuePerShare":0.86}],"sensitivities":[{"id":"nuai-development-state-scenarios","title":"Value per share: development state versus scenario case","rowLabel":"Development state","columnLabel":"Scenario case","rows":["Current probability-weighted platform","Phase 1 signed + later options","Full 1.4 GW execution"],"columns":["Bear","Base","Bull"],"values":[[0,3.61,27.86],[0.12,5.62,35.29],[0.83,9.33,43.71]],"unit":"USD/share","note":"No-promote outputs from the live Google Drive workbook. A dash in the workbook is represented as zero for machine-readable display."},{"id":"nuai-promote-impact","title":"Base case: no-promote value versus with-promote value","rowLabel":"Development state","columnLabel":"Sponsor economics","rows":["Current probability-weighted platform","Phase 1 signed + later options","Full 1.4 GW execution"],"columns":["No promote","With promote"],"values":[[3.61,4.96],[5.62,7.67],[9.33,12.93]],"unit":"USD/share","note":"Promote value remains an upside case because the final preferred return, catch-up, GP split and distribution waterfall have not been disclosed."},{"id":"nuai-prob-dilution","title":"Value per share: phase completion probability versus diluted shares","rowLabel":"Weighted completion probability","columnLabel":"Diluted shares","rows":[0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7],"columns":[95,110,123,140,160],"values":[[4.6,4,3.6,3.2,2.8],[5.7,4.9,4.4,3.9,3.4],[6.8,5.9,5.2,4.6,4],[7.9,6.8,6,5.3,4.7],[9,7.7,6.8,6,5.3]],"unit":"USD/share","note":"Illustrative interpolation around the live workbook's phase-probability and diluted-share controls; use the Google Sheet for exact formula-backed outputs."}],"limitations":["The model is source-backed to the live Google Drive workbook, but several economically decisive inputs remain assumptions rather than verified contract terms.","No executed NUAI tenant lease, final GP/LP waterfall, definitive project-financing agreement, final power purchase documentation, fuel supply, emissions permit, interconnection right, or construction notice-to-proceed is established by the website model.","Comparable AI infrastructure leases help calibrate revenue ranges but do not establish NUAI-specific rent, tenant funding, credit support, pass-throughs, remedies, or residual value.","Phase 2 and Phase 3 power economics are separated from data-center economics; retained power-SPV value should not be counted unless ownership and tariff economics are disclosed.","Per-share values remain highly sensitive to direct ownership, dilution, debt availability, completion probabilities, and sponsor promote terms.","Legacy wells and New Mexico optionality remain excluded from base TCDC campus value unless firm gas transport, supply, power-contract economics, and deliverability evidence are disclosed."],"illustrative":false}}