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ractiveModel":null,"model":{"slug":"pulsar-helium-topaz-valuation-model","title":"Pulsar Helium Integrated Topaz Valuation Model","company":"Pulsar Helium","ticker":"TSXV: PLSR / AIM: PLSR / OTCQB: PSRHF","sector":"Primary helium and industrial gases","modelType":"Project DCF, funding waterfall and sum-of-the-parts valuation","description":"A current preliminary, source-backed Topaz valuation that links resource classification, sustained-well deliverability, plant capacity, helium and CO2 economics, installed cost, taxes, financing, partner economics and dilution instead of valuing nameplate capacity in isolation.","purpose":"Estimate conditional shareholder value across constrained, Base development and upside cases without treating contingent or prospective resources as reserves, peak test rates as commercial plateaus, strategic-partner capital as free money, or the reserved processing package as a completed fixed-price plant.","valuationDate":"2026-08-05","forecastPeriod":"2026E–2040E, constrained by modeled resource and commercial life","currency":"CAD","shareCountMillions":228.810478,"netDebtMillions":-27.809001,"version":"2.0.0-preliminary","updatedAt":"2026-08-05","author":"Ephesus Research","sourceCoverage":13,"developmentStage":"Pre-production; plant package reserved, definitive purchase agreement not publicly verified","spreadsheetAvailable":false,"downloadAvailable":false,"scenariosAvailable":true,"excelDownloadKey":"pulsarExcel","sourceDataUrl":"/sources?company=Pulsar%20Helium","methodologyUrl":"/methodology#valuation-methodology","relatedResearch":["pulsar-helium-topaz-development-valuation"],"scenarios":[{"name":"bear","label":"Constrained development and financing stress","impliedEnterpriseValue":0,"impliedEquityValue":39.54,"impliedValuePerShare":0.1033,"probabilityWeight":0.25,"keyAssumptions":["Four modeled well equivalents at 0.30 MMcf/day sustained raw-gas flow","Field-supported utilization limits the plant to approximately 9.5% of nameplate","US$12/litre starting helium netback and a 22% project discount rate","No project value is recognized when the un-risked DCF remains negative","The remaining funding gap is raised at a 30% discount to the C$1.42 reference price"],"primaryRisks":["Further resource or flow-test disappointment","Installed cost above the indicative package price","Equity financing at a severe discount","Delay or failure to execute the definitive plant agreement","No bankable helium or CO2 offtake"]},{"name":"base","label":"Sustained-feed-constrained Base development","impliedEnterpriseValue":16.93,"impliedEquityValue":56.47,"impliedValuePerShare":0.1927,"probabilityWeight":0.5,"keyAssumptions":["Eight modeled well equivalents at 0.75 MMcf/day sustained raw-gas flow","Field-supported utilization limits the plant to approximately 60.5%, below the 70% commercial target","US$22/litre starting helium netback and a 15% project discount rate","US$122.2 million all-in installed plant cost and US$146.3 million total remaining pre-production uses","US$55.0 million debt, a 10% partner funding/economic share and approximately 64.2 million new shares"],"primaryRisks":["Commercial decline rates are unproven","Current risked resources cover only about 13.9% of modeled development production","The estimated US$51.3 million equity gap may be larger or unavailable","Plant scope, EPC, installation, commissioning and infrastructure remain estimates","The current market enterprise value is not explained by the Base risked DCF"]},{"name":"bull","label":"High-deliverability and option-value case","impliedEnterpriseValue":415.65,"impliedEquityValue":455.19,"impliedValuePerShare":1.7594,"probabilityWeight":0.25,"keyAssumptions":["Ten modeled well equivalents at 1.30 MMcf/day sustained raw-gas flow","Commercial utilization reaches 85% of the 940 litre-per-hour plant","US$28/litre starting helium netback and a 13% project discount rate","US$107.3 million all-in installed plant cost and stronger debt availability","Includes US$40 million of Falcon, corporate and helium-3 option value"],"primaryRisks":["The 1.30 MMcf/day figure was a compressed test peak, not a proven multi-year rate","Bull production still requires further resource conversion and recovery evidence","Option values are early-stage and may never become realizable","Financing, permitting, construction and offtake assumptions remain conditional","Even the Bull output has limited margin above the C$1.42 reference price"]}],"assumptions":[{"id":"pulsar-current-price","name":"Reference share price","value":1.42,"unit":"CAD/share","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-pulsar-stock-information-2026-07","sourceLabel":"Pulsar stock-information page","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"high","notes":"Delayed reference price used only for market-capitalization, dilution and market-implied diagnostics. It is not a price forecast."},{"id":"pulsar-fully-diluted-shares","name":"Current fully diluted shares","value":228.810478,"unit":"millions","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-pulsar-stock-information-2026-07","sourceLabel":"Pulsar stock-information page","asOfDate":"2026-07-20","confidence":"high","notes":"Includes basic shares, options, PSUs, RSUs and warrants. Future project financing dilution is modeled separately."},{"id":"pulsar-net-liquidity","name":"Pro forma net liquidity after reservation payment","value":27.809,"unit":"USD millions","scenario":"all","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceId":"src-pulsar-offering-2026-07","sourceLabel":"July offering and plant-reservation bridge","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"medium","notes":"Reconciles pre-offering liquidity, estimated net proceeds and the modeled reservation payment. It is not a substitute for the next filed balance sheet."},{"id":"pulsar-resource-classification","name":"Current resource classification","value":"Contingent and prospective resources; no reserves assigned","unit":"classification","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-pulsar-topaz-cpr-2026-01","sourceLabel":"Independent Topaz CPR","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"high","notes":"The model applies explicit risk, recovery and development probabilities and does not relabel resources as reserves."},{"id":"pulsar-base-risked-resource","name":"Base risked recoverable helium","value":164.89,"unit":"MMcf","scenario":"base","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceId":"src-pulsar-topaz-cpr-2026-01","sourceLabel":"Risked CPR resource bridge","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"Applies modeled resource risking, an expansion factor and processing recovery. This is not a reserve estimate."},{"id":"pulsar-plant-nameplate","name":"Reserved helium plant nameplate","value":940,"unit":"liquid litres/hour","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-pulsar-plant-reservation-2026-06","sourceLabel":"Plant reservation agreement announcement","asOfDate":"2026-06-30","confidence":"high","notes":"Nameplate capacity is not treated as production. Effective utilization is capped by modeled sustained well feed and commercial utilization."},{"id":"pulsar-base-wells","name":"Base producing-well equivalents","value":8,"unit":"well equivalents","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-pulsar-production-pathway-2026-07","sourceLabel":"Six-well program plus existing-well development plan","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"A well equivalent is an analytical construct. Sustained commercial productivity and completion design remain unproven."},{"id":"pulsar-base-sustained-rate","name":"Base sustained raw-gas rate per well","value":0.75,"unit":"MMcf/day","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-pulsar-sustained-flow-context-2025-09","sourceLabel":"Jetstream flow-test evidence and sensitivity range","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"Above the long-duration natural-flow observation but below the compressed peak. It requires future sustained-production evidence."},{"id":"pulsar-base-effective-utilization","name":"Base effective modeled plant utilization","value":60.5,"unit":"%","scenario":"base","sourceType":"inference","sourceId":"src-pulsar-sustained-flow-context-2025-09","sourceLabel":"Field-supported plant-feed bridge","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"The lower of the 70% commercial target and the utilization supported by eight modeled well equivalents at the selected rate, grade, uptime and recovery."},{"id":"pulsar-base-helium-netback","name":"Base starting helium netback","value":22,"unit":"USD/liquid litre","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-pulsar-usgs-helium-2026","sourceLabel":"USGS market reference and analyst netback assumption","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"No signed Topaz helium offtake is assumed. The input must absorb product specification, liquefaction, logistics, customer terms and selling deductions."},{"id":"pulsar-base-co2-netback","name":"Base CO2 netback","value":40,"unit":"USD/tonne","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-pulsar-plant-reservation-2026-06","sourceLabel":"Announced CO2 recovery capacity and analyst netback","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"No binding CO2 offtake or transport arrangement is assumed. Base CO2 is an operating offset, not the principal valuation driver."},{"id":"pulsar-base-installed-plant-cost","name":"Base all-in installed plant cost","value":122.2,"unit":"USD millions","scenario":"base","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceId":"src-pulsar-plant-reservation-2026-06","sourceLabel":"US$78.7 million equipment package plus modeled installation scope","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"Adds shipping, EPC and site work, commissioning, spares, gathering, land and technical work, pre-production G&A and contingency to the indicative package price."},{"id":"pulsar-base-total-uses","name":"Base total remaining pre-production uses","value":146.3,"unit":"USD millions","scenario":"base","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceId":"src-pulsar-offering-2026-07","sourceLabel":"Integrated plant, field, infrastructure and corporate sources-and-uses model","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"Includes plant, wells, gathering, infrastructure, permitting, technical work and pre-production corporate costs."},{"id":"pulsar-base-funding-gap","name":"Base external equity funding gap","value":51.3,"unit":"USD millions","scenario":"base","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceId":"src-pulsar-offering-2026-07","sourceLabel":"Integrated financing waterfall","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"After modeled cash, US$55.0 million of debt and a 10% strategic-partner funding contribution. Debt and partner funding are not committed in the model."},{"id":"pulsar-base-new-shares","name":"Base illustrative project-financing dilution","value":64.2,"unit":"new shares, millions","scenario":"base","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceId":"src-pulsar-offering-2026-07","sourceLabel":"Equity-gap and issue-price bridge","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"Assumes the equity gap is issued at approximately C$1.136 per share, a 20% discount to the C$1.42 reference price."},{"id":"pulsar-base-resource-coverage","name":"Base development-production resource coverage","value":13.9,"unit":"%","scenario":"base","sourceType":"inference","sourceId":"src-pulsar-topaz-cpr-2026-01","sourceLabel":"Risked resource divided by modeled DCF production","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"A diagnostic showing that the strategic development case depends on materially more recoverable helium than the current risked resource bridge."},{"id":"pulsar-tax-policy-assumption","name":"Modeled Minnesota gross-proceeds tax schedule","value":"7% for first three extraction years; 9% thereafter","unit":"conservative policy assumption","scenario":"all","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-pulsar-minnesota-proposed-tax","sourceLabel":"Proposed SF 2374 language, cross-checked to current statute","asOfDate":"2026-08-05","confidence":"low","notes":"Retained as a conservative sensitivity and not represented as enacted law. Gas-specific application and interaction with other taxes require legal confirmation."}],"buildoutPhases":[],"sensitivities":[{"id":"pulsar-netback-discount","title":"Simplified fully funded strategic NAV: helium netback versus discount rate","rowLabel":"Starting helium netback (USD/litre)","columnLabel":"Project discount rate","rows":[14,18,22,26,30,34,38],"columns":[10,12,15,18,20],"values":[[0.1421,0.1421,0.1421,0.1421,0.1421],[0.1421,0.1421,0.1421,0.1421,0.1421],[0.2654,0.2315,0.19,0.1574,0.1421],[0.3922,0.3454,0.2876,0.2419,0.2166],[0.519,0.4593,0.3853,0.3263,0.2936],[0.6459,0.5732,0.483,0.4108,0.3706],[0.7727,0.6871,0.5806,0.4952,0.4475]],"unit":"CAD/share","note":"Simplified Base operating profile; negative project value is floored at zero and this table does not replace the detailed annual DCF."},{"id":"pulsar-wells-sustained-rate","title":"Field-supported plant utilization: well equivalents versus sustained raw-gas rate","rowLabel":"Producing-well equivalents","columnLabel":"Sustained raw-gas rate (MMcf/day per well)","rows":[4,6,8,10,12],"columns":[0.3,0.5,0.75,1,1.3],"values":[[0.121,0.2017,0.3026,0.4034,0.5244],[0.1815,0.3026,0.4538,0.6051,0.7867],[0.2421,0.4034,0.6051,0.8068,1],[0.3026,0.5043,0.7564,1,1],[0.3631,0.6051,0.9077,1,1]],"unit":"plant utilization","note":"Uses Base uptime, helium concentration, processing recovery and 940 L/hour nameplate. It does not prove any well can sustain the selected rate."},{"id":"pulsar-issue-price-debt","title":"Base illustrative new shares: future issue price versus debt replacing equity","rowLabel":"Future issue price (CAD/share)","columnLabel":"Additional debt replacing equity (USD millions)","rows":[0.8,1,1.2,1.4,1.6,1.8],"columns":[0,10,20,30,40],"values":[[91.13,73.36,55.58,37.81,20.04],[72.9,58.69,44.47,30.25,16.03],[60.75,48.9,37.06,25.21,13.36],[52.07,41.92,31.76,21.61,11.45],[45.57,36.68,27.79,18.9,10.02],[40.5,32.6,24.7,16.8,8.9]],"unit":"new shares, millions","note":"Additional debt is shown only as an equity-gap substitute. It does not add project value and may be unavailable without reserves, contracts, collateral or stronger debt-service evidence."}],"limitations":["No mineral reserves have been assigned. Current disclosed quantities remain contingent and prospective resources.","Jetstream flow tests are short-duration observations. The model does not have a commercial production history, decline curve or independently verified sustainable plateau.","The 1.3 MMcf/day Jetstream #1 result was a compressed peak and is used only in the Bull sensitivity, not as a Base multi-year rate.","Jetstream #2 remained mechanically restricted in the latest flow evidence used by the model and requires remediation and retesting.","The processing package is reserved, but a definitive fixed-price purchase agreement was not publicly verified by the August 5 valuation date.","The US$78.7 million package price is not an all-in installed project cost. Shipping, EPC, site work, gathering, commissioning, spares, contingency and owner costs are modeled estimates.","No binding bankable helium or CO2 offtake is assumed. Realized prices, product specifications, logistics, customer credit and take-or-pay terms could differ materially.","Base risked resource coverage is approximately 13.9% of modeled development DCF production, requiring substantial appraisal, recovery and conversion evidence.","Debt, strategic-partner capital and future equity are illustrative. Availability, covenants, collateral, pricing and economic ownership may be materially less favorable.","The model treats partner funding as an equal economic project claim rather than free non-dilutive capital.","Minnesota tax treatment remains uncertain. The 7%/9% schedule is a conservative policy assumption derived from proposed language, not represented as enacted law.","Falcon, helium-3 and other corporate options are recognized only in the Bull case and may never produce economic value.","All scenario outputs are conditional estimated values, not predictions of future market prices, recommendations or guarantees."],"illustrative":false}}