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AI Probability-Weighted SOTP Model","company":"SPCX","ticker":"SPCX","sector":"Aerospace, satellite connectivity, and artificial intelligence","modelType":"Probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts discounted cash flow","description":"A source-backed operating and valuation model that separates Space, Connectivity, AI Infrastructure, AI Applications, and orbital-compute optionality, with quarterly forecasts through 2028 and annual forecasts through 2035.","purpose":"Test whether SpaceX's buildout, pricing, application growth, capital intensity, hardware replacement, financing, and dilution can produce enough sustainable cash flow to support the current market value.","valuationDate":"2026-06-30","forecastPeriod":"Quarterly Q3 2026–Q4 2028; annual 2029–2035","currency":"USD","shareCountMillions":14303.7,"netDebtMillions":-53243,"version":"2.0.1","updatedAt":"2026-08-08","author":"Ephesus Research","sourceCoverage":28,"developmentStage":"Current preliminary source-backed model","spreadsheetAvailable":false,"downloadAvailable":true,"scenariosAvailable":true,"sourceDataUrl":"/sources?company=SPCX","methodologyUrl":"/methodology#valuation-methodology","relatedResearch":["spacex-ai-probability-weighted-sotp-valuation"],"scenarios":[{"name":"bear","label":"Bear case","impliedEnterpriseValue":-532407,"impliedEquityValue":-479164,"impliedValuePerShare":0,"probabilityWeight":0.2,"keyAssumptions":["5.5 GW of installed nameplate compute by year-end 2027 and 9.3 GW by 2035","$16.9 billion of external AI exit ARR at year-end 2027","Rapid pricing normalization, high churn, and six months of recontracting downtime","$50 billion of initial all-in AI capex per GW, four-year IT refresh, and full equivalent replacement cost","No AI Infrastructure terminal value and no orbital option value"],"primaryRisks":["The negative raw value assumes management continues an uneconomic build instead of slowing it","Physical delivery may be worse than the scenario","Funding needs may cause restructuring before the modeled endpoint","Segment terminal values remain sensitive to the forecast horizon"]},{"name":"base","label":"Base case","impliedEnterpriseValue":-278708,"impliedEquityValue":-225465,"impliedValuePerShare":0,"probabilityWeight":0.5,"keyAssumptions":["8.0 GW of installed nameplate compute by year-end 2027 and 21.2 GW by 2035","$89.1 billion of external AI exit ARR at year-end 2027, declining toward $61.8 billion by 2035","$40 billion of initial all-in AI capex per GW, five-year IT refresh, and 80% equivalent replacement cost","Consolidated revenue reaches $257.5 billion in 2035 while AI capital remains heavy","AI Infrastructure terminal value is suppressed because post-refresh cash flow has not normalized"],"primaryRisks":["Revenue per MW normalizes faster than assumed","Cumulative external funding requirement is approximately $598.6 billion","Internal AI transfer economics are undisclosed","A rational growth-stop response is not modeled"]},{"name":"bull","label":"Bull case","impliedEnterpriseValue":894901,"impliedEquityValue":948144,"impliedValuePerShare":65.47,"probabilityWeight":0.25,"keyAssumptions":["10.0 GW of installed nameplate compute by year-end 2027 and 37.0 GW by 2035","$234.7 billion of external AI exit ARR at year-end 2027","$35 billion of initial all-in AI capex per GW, six-year IT refresh, and 65% equivalent replacement cost","$849.1 billion of consolidated revenue and $181.5 billion of FCFF in 2035","$183.8 billion of probability-weighted Starmind optionality"],"primaryRisks":["Year-end 2027 ARR exceeds ordinary extrapolated neocloud market size","Physical power and GPU delivery are unprecedented","Positive value remains highly terminal-value dependent","The scenario still falls below the $133.11 reference price"]},{"name":"custom","label":"Elon Case","impliedEnterpriseValue":3621550,"impliedEquityValue":3674793,"impliedValuePerShare":229.92,"probabilityWeight":0.05,"keyAssumptions":["A quote-constrained stars-align path reaches approximately $1.001 trillion of revenue in 2030","Installed nameplate compute reaches 9 GW in 2027, 30 GW in 2028, and 180 GW in 2035","Connectivity reaches $120 billion of revenue in 2030 and approximately $500 billion in 2035","AI Applications reach $150 billion of revenue in 2030 and approximately $847.5 billion in 2035","A 1.5 billion-share financing is included and Starmind receives $512 billion of probability-weighted option value"],"primaryRisks":["The case is an aspiration bridge, not company guidance","A residual $177.9 billion external funding gap remains in 2028 after the modeled share issuance","Terafab cost reductions, application demand, Starlink monetization, and orbital milestones must align","Additional common equity would reduce the per-share value"]}],"assumptions":[{"id":"spacex-valuation-date","name":"Valuation date","value":"2026-06-30","unit":"date","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-spacex-q2-2026-10q","sourceLabel":"SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q","asOfDate":"2026-06-30","confidence":"high","notes":"Aligned with the latest filed balance sheet; the market-price cross-check is dated August 7, 2026."},{"id":"spacex-reference-price","name":"Market-price cross-check","value":133.11,"unit":"USD/share","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-spacex-market-price-2026-08-07","sourceLabel":"Nasdaq market-data cross-check","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"high","notes":"Used only as a valuation hurdle; it does not share the model's June 30 balance-sheet date."},{"id":"spacex-basic-shares","name":"Reported basic shares outstanding","value":13181.78,"unit":"millions","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-spacex-q2-2026-10q","sourceLabel":"SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover","asOfDate":"2026-07-28","confidence":"high","notes":"Class A plus Class B; scenario dilution waterfalls add only awards and transactions not already included."},{"id":"spacex-base-diluted-shares","name":"Base fully diluted share count","value":14303.7,"unit":"millions","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-spacex-q2-2026-10q","sourceLabel":"Filed share and award counts plus v2.0.1 dilution waterfall","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"medium","notes":"Includes scenario-weighted awards, pending EchoStar consideration, and illustrative Cursor consideration without double-counting issued Musk restricted or Mesh shares."},{"id":"spacex-cash-securities-digital","name":"Cash, marketable securities, and digital assets","value":101107,"unit":"USD millions","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-spacex-q2-2026-10q","sourceLabel":"SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q","asOfDate":"2026-06-30","confidence":"high","notes":"Equity bridge also subtracts debt and pending Spectrum cash consideration."},{"id":"spacex-debt-leases","name":"Debt and finance leases","value":39364,"unit":"USD millions","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-spacex-q2-2026-10q","sourceLabel":"SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q","asOfDate":"2026-06-30","confidence":"high","notes":"Includes current and long-term carrying value, including AI hardware lease obligations."},{"id":"spacex-space-wacc","name":"Space segment discount rate","value":11.5,"unit":"%","scenario":"all","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceLabel":"Ephesus Research segment risk calibration","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"medium","notes":"Held constant across operating cases to isolate operating differences."},{"id":"spacex-connectivity-wacc","name":"Connectivity segment discount rate","value":9.5,"unit":"%","scenario":"all","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceLabel":"Ephesus Research segment risk calibration","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"medium","notes":"Lower than other segments because recurring subscriptions and government/enterprise contracts are more mature."},{"id":"spacex-ai-infrastructure-wacc","name":"AI Infrastructure segment discount rate","value":13.5,"unit":"%","scenario":"all","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceLabel":"Ephesus Research segment risk calibration","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"medium","notes":"Reflects customer concentration, hardware turnover, power delivery, and funding risk."},{"id":"spacex-ai-applications-wacc","name":"AI Applications segment discount rate","value":15,"unit":"%","scenario":"all","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceLabel":"Ephesus Research segment risk calibration","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"medium","notes":"Reflects product adoption, competitive, pricing, and monetization risk."},{"id":"spacex-ai-capex-bear","name":"Initial all-in AI capex per GW","value":50,"unit":"USD billions/GW","scenario":"bear","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceLabel":"Ephesus Research scenario assumption","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"low","notes":"Blends silicon, network, facility, power, and contingency pending asset-class disclosure."},{"id":"spacex-ai-capex-base","name":"Initial all-in AI capex per GW","value":40,"unit":"USD billions/GW","scenario":"base","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceLabel":"Ephesus Research scenario assumption","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"low","notes":"The model applies refresh only to the assumed IT/network share through installation vintages."},{"id":"spacex-ai-capex-bull","name":"Initial all-in AI capex per GW","value":35,"unit":"USD billions/GW","scenario":"bull","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceLabel":"Ephesus Research scenario assumption","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"low","notes":"Requires repeatable construction efficiency and favorable equipment economics."},{"id":"spacex-refresh-life-bear","name":"AI IT and network refresh life","value":4,"unit":"years","scenario":"bear","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-spacex-goldman-ai-buildout","sourceLabel":"Goldman Sachs asset-life cross-check and Ephesus scenario","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"medium","notes":"Replacement is charged when each installation cohort reaches its modeled life."},{"id":"spacex-refresh-life-base","name":"AI IT and network refresh life","value":5,"unit":"years","scenario":"base","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-spacex-goldman-ai-buildout","sourceLabel":"Goldman Sachs asset-life cross-check and Ephesus scenario","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"medium","notes":"Base replacement cost equals 80% of equivalent new IT after cost decline and salvage."},{"id":"spacex-refresh-life-bull","name":"AI IT and network refresh life","value":6,"unit":"years","scenario":"bull","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceId":"src-spacex-goldman-ai-buildout","sourceLabel":"Goldman Sachs asset-life cross-check and Ephesus scenario","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"medium","notes":"Bull replacement cost equals 65% of equivalent new IT after cost decline and salvage."},{"id":"spacex-anthropic-contract","name":"Anthropic steady-state monthly cloud fee","value":1250,"unit":"USD millions/month","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-spacex-anthropic-cloud-disclosure","sourceLabel":"SEC-filed Anthropic cloud-service disclosure","asOfDate":"2026-05-01","confidence":"high","notes":"Covers 325,000 GPUs and supporting infrastructure; terminable on 90 days' notice after the initial period."},{"id":"spacex-google-contract","name":"Google steady-state monthly cloud fee","value":920,"unit":"USD millions/month","scenario":"all","sourceType":"fact","sourceId":"src-spacex-google-cloud-disclosure","sourceLabel":"SEC-filed Google cloud-service disclosure","asOfDate":"2026-05-01","confidence":"high","notes":"Covers 110,000 GPUs plus supporting components after ramp; terminable on 90 days' notice after December 2026."},{"id":"spacex-elon-case-weight","name":"Elon Case probability weight","value":5,"unit":"%","scenario":"custom","sourceType":"analyst-estimate","sourceId":"src-spacex-q2-2026-transcript","sourceLabel":"Ephesus claim audit of management aspirations","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"low","notes":"Requires multiple independent operating, demand, financing, manufacturing, and orbital milestones to align."},{"id":"spacex-elon-financing-shares","name":"Elon Case financing shares","value":1500,"unit":"millions","scenario":"custom","sourceType":"model-assumption","sourceLabel":"Ephesus Research financing stress","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"low","notes":"Modeled at the $133.11 reference price; a further $177.9 billion 2028 funding gap remains."},{"id":"spacex-orbital-option-base","name":"Base probability-weighted Starmind option value","value":32400,"unit":"USD millions","scenario":"base","sourceType":"speculation","sourceId":"src-spacex-starmind","sourceLabel":"Milestone-gated Ephesus real-option analysis","asOfDate":"2026-08-07","confidence":"low","notes":"A $300 billion gross option is multiplied by 10.8% joint technical, scale, and commercial success probability."}],"buildoutPhases":[],"sensitivities":[{"id":"spacex-2027-ai-arr-gw-price","title":"Year-end 2027 external AI exit ARR: installed compute versus annual price per MW","rowLabel":"Installed nameplate compute (GW)","columnLabel":"Annual price (USD millions/MW-year)","rows":[5.5,6.5,8,9,10],"columns":[12,20,25,30,40],"values":[[29.4,49,61.3,73.5,98],[34.7,57.9,72.4,86.9,115.8],[42.8,71.3,89.1,106.9,142.6],[48.1,80.2,100.2,120.3,160.4],[53.5,89.1,111.4,133.7,178.2]],"unit":"USD billions of exit ARR","note":"Formula includes the model's Base commissioning, acceptance, and external-allocation factors. Exit ARR is a point-in-time run rate, not full-year revenue."},{"id":"spacex-equity-value-performance-awards","title":"Per-share value: core equity value versus unissued performance-award vesting","rowLabel":"Performance-award vesting (%)","columnLabel":"Core equity value (USD billions)","rows":[0,25,50,75,100],"columns":[1000,1500,2000,2500],"values":[[69.98,104.97,139.97,174.96],[69.95,104.92,139.89,174.87],[69.91,104.87,139.82,174.78],[69.88,104.81,139.75,174.69],[69.84,104.76,139.68,174.6]],"unit":"USD/share","note":"Corrected v2.0.1 table converts equity value from billions to millions before dividing by million shares."}],"limitations":["The $0.00 Bear and Base outputs are limited-liability floors; negative raw equity values remain funding-burden diagnostics rather than literal stock-price forecasts.","Management adaptation is not modeled. A rational operator could slow, defer, partner, lease, or cancel marginally uneconomic capacity.","AI capex per GW blends silicon, networking, buildings, power, and contingency because asset-class budgets are not publicly disclosed.","Internal AI transfer pricing is illustrative and zero-sum; combined AI value is more reliable than the split between Infrastructure and Applications.","Bear and Base AI Infrastructure terminal value is suppressed until a longer forecast shows a valid normalized terminal state and three consecutive positive post-refresh FCFF years.","Anthropic and Google terms validate near-term pricing but allow relatively short termination windows; replacement pricing and downtime are uncertain.","The financing schedule identifies cash gaps but does not have disclosed project-level collateral, covenants, maturities, or debt-service coverage ratios.","The Starmind option is speculative and lacks demonstrated thermal, radiation, bandwidth, repair, and twelve-month total-cost evidence.","Paywalled JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi, and Morgan Stanley issuer targets are non-reproducible cross-checks, not model inputs.","The $133.11 market reference is dated August 7, 2026, while the valuation balance sheet is dated June 30, 2026.","Scenario probabilities are analytical judgments, not statistically estimated event probabilities.","The precise per-share values are less reliable than the reverse-DCF, capital-intensity, funding, and segment-contribution conclusions."],"illustrative":false}}