{ "schema_version": "1.0", "article_slug": "nuai-ppa-spark-spread-and-power-cost-advantage", "prepared_date": "2026-10-19", "currency": "USD", "classification": "Illustrative calculations, not NUAI contract pricing, operating forecasts, observed market history, or investment return forecasts.", "baseline_assumptions": { "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 80, "henry_hub_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 4, "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 3, "heat_rate_mmbtu_per_mwh": 7, "ppa_nonfuel_usd_per_mwh": 29, "fixed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "delivered_capacity_mw": 207, "utilization_fraction": 0.9, "annual_hours": 8760 }, "methods": { "spark": "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh - heat_rate_mmbtu_per_mwh * henry_hub_gas_usd_per_mmbtu", "local_basis": "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu - henry_hub_gas_usd_per_mmbtu", "indexed_ppa": "ppa_nonfuel_usd_per_mwh + heat_rate_mmbtu_per_mwh * local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu", "relative_advantage": "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh - indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh", "annual_mwh": "delivered_capacity_mw * utilization_fraction * annual_hours", "annual_gas_sensitivity": "annual_mwh * heat_rate_mmbtu_per_mwh * gas_increase_usd_per_mmbtu", "direct_landlord_noi_change": "-annual_increment_usd * (1 - tenant_recovery_pct / 100)" }, "limitations": [ "NUAI PPA prices and heat-rate pricing are not publicly established by these examples.", "207 MW is applied as modeled delivered capacity; gross capacity and IT capacity are not interchangeable with this input.", "90% utilization, 8760 annual hours and heat rate 7 are scenario assumptions, not operating guidance.", "The nonfuel component is modeled as $29/MWh; actual capacity payments may be quoted per MW-month and their cost per MWh changes with utilization.", "Benchmark and contractual heat rates are assumed equal.", "Contract floors, transport, delivery, firmness, losses, replacement power, backup and other unmodeled charges may alter outcomes.", "Tenant recovery percentages are hypothetical structures, not established NUAI lease terms.", "Timing, collection risk and secondary rent effects are excluded.", "A relative power advantage is not automatically a landlord profit or a tradable market spread.", "No historical or forward gas quote is annualized as observed savings." ], "sources": [ { "label": "EIA spark-spread definition and limitations", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/includes/sparkspread_explain.php", "role": "Definition only; not source of illustrative chart prices." }, { "label": "EIA historical explanation of Waha basis and pipeline takeaway", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48276", "role": "Economic mechanism only; charts do not depict this historical episode." }, { "label": "New Era Energy & Digital September 21, 2026 Form 8-K", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2028336/000121390026101642/ea0305716-8k_newera.htm", "role": "Source of disclosed 200–207 MW contract quantity only. Not source of illustrative prices, heat rate, utilization or tenant recovery." } ], "charts": [ { "id": "01", "filename": "01-power-cost-anatomy.svg", "title": "Three components of the power-cost advantage", "rows": [ { "component": "Benchmark spark spread", "adjustment_usd_per_mwh": 52, "running_total_usd_per_mwh": 52, "formula": "80 - 7 * 4" }, { "component": "Local gas fuel benefit", "adjustment_usd_per_mwh": 7, "running_total_usd_per_mwh": 59, "formula": "7 * (4 - 3)" }, { "component": "PPA nonfuel component", "adjustment_usd_per_mwh": -29, "running_total_usd_per_mwh": 30, "formula": "-29" }, { "component": "Relative power advantage", "total_usd_per_mwh": 30, "formula": "52 + 7 - 29" } ] }, { "id": "02", "filename": "02-ppa-gas-response.svg", "title": "Fixed and indexed PPAs respond differently to gas", "rows": [ { "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 0, "fixed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 29, "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 80, "fixed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 30, "indexed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 51 }, { "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 1, "fixed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 36, "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 80, "fixed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 30, "indexed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 44 }, { "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 2, "fixed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 43, "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 80, "fixed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 30, "indexed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 37 }, { "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 3, "fixed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 80, "fixed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 30, "indexed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 30 }, { "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 4, "fixed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 57, "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 80, "fixed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 30, "indexed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 23 }, { "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 5, "fixed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 64, "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 80, "fixed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 30, "indexed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 16 }, { "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 6, "fixed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 71, "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 80, "fixed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 30, "indexed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 9 }, { "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 7, "fixed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 78, "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 80, "fixed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 30, "indexed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 2 }, { "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 8, "fixed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 50, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 85, "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 80, "fixed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 30, "indexed_advantage_usd_per_mwh": -5 } ] }, { "id": "03", "filename": "03-basis-counterexample.svg", "title": "Wider spark, smaller local power advantage", "rows": [ { "scenario": "A", "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 70, "henry_hub_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 4, "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 1, "local_basis_usd_per_mmbtu": -3, "benchmark_spark_usd_per_mwh": 42, "local_fuel_benefit_usd_per_mwh": 21, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 36, "relative_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 34 }, { "scenario": "B", "power_benchmark_usd_per_mwh": 90, "henry_hub_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 5, "local_gas_usd_per_mmbtu": 5, "local_basis_usd_per_mmbtu": 0, "benchmark_spark_usd_per_mwh": 55, "local_fuel_benefit_usd_per_mwh": 0, "indexed_ppa_usd_per_mwh": 64, "relative_advantage_usd_per_mwh": 26 } ] }, { "id": "04", "filename": "04-207mw-gas-sensitivity.svg", "title": "Gas sensitivity at 207 MW", "annual_mwh": 1631988, "annual_fuel_equivalent_mmbtu": 11423916, "rows": [ { "gas_increase_usd_per_mmbtu": 0.25, "power_increase_usd_per_mwh": 1.75, "power_increase_cents_per_kwh": 0.175, "annual_increment_usd": 2855979, "annual_increment_usd_millions": 2.855979 }, { "gas_increase_usd_per_mmbtu": 0.5, "power_increase_usd_per_mwh": 3.5, "power_increase_cents_per_kwh": 0.35, "annual_increment_usd": 5711958, "annual_increment_usd_millions": 5.711958 }, { "gas_increase_usd_per_mmbtu": 1.0, "power_increase_usd_per_mwh": 7.0, "power_increase_cents_per_kwh": 0.7, "annual_increment_usd": 11423916, "annual_increment_usd_millions": 11.423916 }, { "gas_increase_usd_per_mmbtu": 2.0, "power_increase_usd_per_mwh": 14.0, "power_increase_cents_per_kwh": 1.4, "annual_increment_usd": 22847832, "annual_increment_usd_millions": 22.847832 }, { "gas_increase_usd_per_mmbtu": 3.0, "power_increase_usd_per_mwh": 21.0, "power_increase_cents_per_kwh": 2.1, "annual_increment_usd": 34271748, "annual_increment_usd_millions": 34.271748 } ], "fuel_price_assumption": "Supplier passes fuel-price changes fully into the PPA bill." }, { "id": "05", "filename": "05-tenant-cost-recovery.svg", "title": "Who bears the additional power bill?", "rows": [ { "tenant_recovery_pct": 100, "tenant_increment_usd": 11423916, "landlord_unrecovered_cost_usd": 0, "direct_landlord_noi_change_usd": 0 }, { "tenant_recovery_pct": 75, "tenant_increment_usd": 8567937, "landlord_unrecovered_cost_usd": 2855979, "direct_landlord_noi_change_usd": -2855979 }, { "tenant_recovery_pct": 0, "tenant_increment_usd": 0, "landlord_unrecovered_cost_usd": 11423916, "direct_landlord_noi_change_usd": -11423916 } ] } ], "company_capacity_context": { "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2028336/000121390026101642/ea0305716-8k_newera.htm", "agreement_date": "2026-09-18", "filing_date": "2026-09-21", "disclosed_minimum_contract_quantity_mw": 200, "disclosed_maximum_contract_quantity_mw": 207, "chart_treatment": "The annual sensitivity applies the disclosed upper bound of 207 MW as a hypothetical delivered-capacity input. The 90% utilization, 7 MMBtu/MWh heat rate, continuous annual schedule and the assumption that the supplier passes fuel-price changes fully into the PPA bill remain illustrative, not disclosed contract pricing or operating guidance." }, "assumption_labels": { "supplier_to_ppa_fuel_price_transmission": "Supplier passes fuel-price changes fully into the PPA bill; this describes the upstream supplier-to-PPA charge, separately from tenant recovery in Figure 5." } }