{
  "cutoff": "2026-10-20",
  "rental_snapshots": {
    "class": "Observed publisher index snapshots; not audited collections",
    "unit": "USD per GPU-hour",
    "segment": "Neocloud",
    "rows": [
      {
        "date": "2026-05-04",
        "H100": 2.57,
        "H200": 2.7,
        "B200": null,
        "sources": [
          "S35"
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-27",
        "H100": 2.75,
        "H200": 3.09,
        "B200": 5.66,
        "sources": [
          "S35",
          "S36"
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-07",
        "H100": 2.63,
        "H200": 3.29,
        "B200": 5.69,
        "sources": [
          "S36"
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-10-20",
        "H100": 2.85,
        "H200": 3.53,
        "B200": 6.14,
        "sources": [
          "S01",
          "S42",
          "S43"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "caveat": "Discrete observations only. Missing data remain missing. Historical revision bridge and current stale FAQs unresolved."
  },
  "google_monthly_tokens": {
    "class": "Company operating claim",
    "unit": "Trillion tokens per month",
    "scope": "All Google surfaces",
    "source": "S06",
    "rows": [
      {
        "date": "May 2024",
        "value": 9.7,
        "qualifier": "Reported"
      },
      {
        "date": "May 2025",
        "value": 480,
        "qualifier": "Approximately"
      },
      {
        "date": "May 2026",
        "value": 3200,
        "qualifier": "Strict lower bound; more than"
      }
    ],
    "caveat": "Paid share and compute intensity unknown. Separate API 19B/minute excluded from monthly series."
  },
  "nvidia_table": {
    "class": "Company technical/economic claim",
    "sources": [
      "S03",
      "S04"
    ],
    "model": "DeepSeek R1",
    "rows": [
      {
        "system": "HGX H200",
        "USD_per_GPU_hour": 1.41,
        "tokens_per_second_per_GPU": 90,
        "tokens_per_second_per_MW": 54000,
        "USD_per_million_tokens": 4.2
      },
      {
        "system": "GB300 NVL72",
        "USD_per_GPU_hour": 2.65,
        "tokens_per_second_per_GPU": 6000,
        "tokens_per_second_per_MW": 2800000,
        "USD_per_million_tokens": 0.12
      }
    ],
    "caveat": "Published rounded values; full matched run/TCO assumptions unresolved. Not the H100 rental comparison."
  },
  "fixed_capability_cost": {
    "class": "Hypothetical constant-rate indexing of research estimate",
    "source": "S05",
    "formula": "100 * 0.53 ** elapsed_quarters",
    "rows": [
      {
        "elapsed_quarters": 0,
        "cost_index": 100
      },
      {
        "elapsed_quarters": 1,
        "cost_index": 53
      },
      {
        "elapsed_quarters": 2,
        "cost_index": 28.090000000000003
      },
      {
        "elapsed_quarters": 3,
        "cost_index": 14.8877
      },
      {
        "elapsed_quarters": 4,
        "cost_index": 7.890481000000002
      }
    ],
    "caveat": "Not observed quarterly history; no calendar labels. Research estimated 47% quarterly decline."
  },
  "output_price_menu": {
    "class": "Observed official list prices",
    "source": "S07",
    "date": "2026-10-20",
    "unit": "USD per million output tokens",
    "scope": "Standard processing below 272K context",
    "rows": [
      {
        "model": "GPT-6 Luna",
        "price": 0.5
      },
      {
        "model": "GPT-6 Astra",
        "price": 50
      }
    ],
    "caveat": "Same-date different products, not price inflation."
  },
  "rebound_grid": {
    "class": "Hypothetical arithmetic",
    "formula": "same_service_demand_multiple / efficiency_multiple",
    "rows": [
      {
        "demand_multiple": 1,
        "efficiency_multiple": 3,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 0.3333333333333333
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 1,
        "efficiency_multiple": 10,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 0.1
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 1,
        "efficiency_multiple": 30,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 0.03333333333333333
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 3,
        "efficiency_multiple": 3,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 1
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 3,
        "efficiency_multiple": 10,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 0.3
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 3,
        "efficiency_multiple": 30,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 0.1
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 10,
        "efficiency_multiple": 3,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 3.3333333333333335
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 10,
        "efficiency_multiple": 10,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 1
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 10,
        "efficiency_multiple": 30,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 0.3333333333333333
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 30,
        "efficiency_multiple": 3,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 10
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 30,
        "efficiency_multiple": 10,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 3
      },
      {
        "demand_multiple": 30,
        "efficiency_multiple": 30,
        "variable_resource_multiple": 1
      }
    ],
    "caveat": "Fixed/idle energy and training excluded. Not an empirical demand elasticity estimate."
  },
  "cohort_waterfall": {
    "class": "Entirely hypothetical",
    "unit": "USD millions per year",
    "source": "model/results.json",
    "rows": [
      [
        "Revenue",
        19.3158
      ],
      [
        "Variable cash costs",
        0.96579
      ],
      [
        "Power",
        0.904032
      ],
      [
        "Fixed cash costs",
        2
      ],
      [
        "Operating cash before tax/finance",
        15.445978
      ],
      [
        "Normalized replacement provision",
        10.6666666667
      ],
      [
        "Normalized pre-tax unlevered residual",
        4.7793113333
      ]
    ],
    "caveat": "Replacement provision is normalized economics, not actual capex or depreciation cash. Residual is not FCF."
  },
  "scenario_chart": {
    "class": "Hypothetical stress paths",
    "source": "model/scenarios.csv",
    "base_date": "2026-10-20",
    "caveat": "No assigned probabilities. Constant system energy per compute; incorporate efficiency exactly once. Capacity delivery required."
  }
}