{
  "evidence_class": "HYPOTHETICAL",
  "currency": "USD",
  "base_date": "2026-10-20",
  "warning": "Educational cohort and stress paths, not company forecasts or market quotes.",
  "cohort": {
    "gpus": 1000,
    "hours_per_year": 8760,
    "availability": 0.98,
    "billable_utilization": 0.75,
    "physical_activity": 0.8,
    "it_mw_full": 1,
    "it_mw_idle": 0.3,
    "pue": 1.2,
    "price_per_billable_gpu_hour": 3,
    "variable_cost_per_billable_gpu_hour": 0.15,
    "electricity_per_mwh": 100,
    "fixed_cash_cost": 2000000,
    "it_capex": 40000000,
    "facility_capex": 10000000,
    "it_life_years": 4,
    "facility_life_years": 15,
    "debt_fraction": 0.6,
    "debt_interest_rate": 0.1,
    "debt_amortization_years": 4,
    "tax_rate": 0.25,
    "required_project_return": 0.12,
    "working_capital_change": 0
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "scenario": "Bear",
      "months": 12,
      "successes": 1.5,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.1,
      "computeEfficiency": 2,
      "variableResource": 0.8250000000000001,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.75,
      "revenue": 1.125,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Bear",
      "months": 24,
      "successes": 2,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.2,
      "computeEfficiency": 4,
      "variableResource": 0.6,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.55,
      "revenue": 1.1,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Bear",
      "months": 36,
      "successes": 2.5,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.3,
      "computeEfficiency": 8,
      "variableResource": 0.40625,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.4,
      "revenue": 1,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Base",
      "months": 12,
      "successes": 2,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.2,
      "computeEfficiency": 2,
      "variableResource": 1.2,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.8,
      "revenue": 1.6,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Base",
      "months": 24,
      "successes": 4,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.4,
      "computeEfficiency": 4,
      "variableResource": 1.4,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.65,
      "revenue": 2.6,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Base",
      "months": 36,
      "successes": 7,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.6,
      "computeEfficiency": 8,
      "variableResource": 1.4000000000000001,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.55,
      "revenue": 3.8500000000000005,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Bull",
      "months": 12,
      "successes": 3,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.3,
      "computeEfficiency": 2,
      "variableResource": 1.9500000000000002,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.85,
      "revenue": 2.55,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Bull",
      "months": 24,
      "successes": 7,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.7,
      "computeEfficiency": 4,
      "variableResource": 2.975,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.7,
      "revenue": 4.8999999999999995,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Bull",
      "months": 36,
      "successes": 15,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 2.2,
      "computeEfficiency": 8,
      "variableResource": 4.125,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.6,
      "revenue": 9,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    }
  ],
  "scenario_boundary": "Successful tasks at constant defined quality/latency; efficiency includes cache/hardware/software once; system energy per compute unit held fixed. Paid demand requires delivered supply. These demand scenarios are separate from static same-cohort price/utilization stress.",
  "input_units": {
    "gpus": "devices",
    "availability": "fraction of calendar hours",
    "billable_utilization": "billed / available GPU-hours",
    "physical_activity": "active fraction of physical load range, independent of billed fraction",
    "price_per_billable_gpu_hour": "USD / billed GPU-hour",
    "electricity_per_mwh": "USD / facility MWh",
    "it_life_years": "economic years, hypothetical",
    "tax_rate": "assumed cash income tax fraction; all modeled taxable income positive at baseline"
  },
  "billing_boundary": "Billable utilization measures sold/reserved available GPU-hours. Reserved capacity can be billed when not physically active, allowing billable utilization to exceed physical activity. It is not a pay-only-for-active-cycles model."
}