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  "evidence_class": "HYPOTHETICAL",
  "base": {
    "hours": 6438600,
    "itMW": 0.8599999999999999,
    "facilityMW": 1.0319999999999998,
    "mwh": 9040.319999999998,
    "revenue": 19315800,
    "variable": 965790,
    "electricity": 904031.9999999998,
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    "breakEvenPrice": 2.2577095434825374,
    "breakEvenBillableUtilization": 0.5546604061796151
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  "capitalRecovery": [
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      "requiredPretaxRate": 0,
      "annualCapital": 10666666.666666666,
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    {
      "requiredPretaxRate": 0.08,
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    {
      "requiredPretaxRate": 0.12,
      "annualCapital": 14637619.848691048,
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    {
      "requiredPretaxRate": 0.16,
      "annualCapital": 16088577.99662721,
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  "annual": [
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      "year": 1,
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      "revenue": 19315800,
      "cashOperating": 15445978,
      "accountingDepreciation": 10666666.666666666,
      "ebit": 4779311.333333334,
      "interest": 3000000,
      "principal": 7500000,
      "projectTax": 1194827.8333333335,
      "equityTax": 444827.8333333335,
      "actualReplacementCapex": 0,
      "terminalFacilitySale": 0,
      "projectCash": 14251150.166666666,
      "equityCash": 4501150.166666666
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    {
      "year": 2,
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      "revenue": 19315800,
      "cashOperating": 15445978,
      "accountingDepreciation": 10666666.666666666,
      "ebit": 4779311.333333334,
      "interest": 2250000,
      "principal": 7500000,
      "projectTax": 1194827.8333333335,
      "equityTax": 632327.8333333335,
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      "projectCash": 14251150.166666666,
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    {
      "year": 3,
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      "cashOperating": 15445978,
      "accountingDepreciation": 10666666.666666666,
      "ebit": 4779311.333333334,
      "interest": 1500000,
      "principal": 7500000,
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      "equityTax": 819827.8333333335,
      "actualReplacementCapex": 0,
      "terminalFacilitySale": 0,
      "projectCash": 14251150.166666666,
      "equityCash": 5626150.166666666
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    {
      "year": 4,
      "openingDebt": 7500000,
      "revenue": 19315800,
      "cashOperating": 15445978,
      "accountingDepreciation": 10666666.666666666,
      "ebit": 4779311.333333334,
      "interest": 750000,
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      "actualReplacementCapex": 0,
      "terminalFacilitySale": 7333333.333333334,
      "projectCash": 21584483.5,
      "equityCash": 13521983.5
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  "projectCashFlows": [
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    14251150.166666666,
    21584483.5
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  "equityCashFlows": [
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    5063650.166666666,
    5626150.166666666,
    13521983.5
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  "projectIRR": 0.10158212632425834,
  "equityIRR": 0.13282875704057673,
  "projectNPV": [
    {
      "rate": 0.08,
      "npv": 2591835.889026245
    },
    {
      "rate": 0.12,
      "npv": -2053812.4442981258
    },
    {
      "rate": 0.16,
      "npv": -6072572.813092202
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  ],
  "delayStress": [
    {
      "months": 0,
      "firstYearRevenue": 19315800,
      "cashOperating": 15445978,
      "interest": 3000000,
      "principal": 7500000,
      "pretaxCashAfterDebtService": 4945978
    },
    {
      "months": 3,
      "firstYearRevenue": 14486850,
      "cashOperating": 11084483.5,
      "interest": 3000000,
      "principal": 7500000,
      "pretaxCashAfterDebtService": 584483.5
    },
    {
      "months": 6,
      "firstYearRevenue": 9657900,
      "cashOperating": 6722989,
      "interest": 3000000,
      "principal": 7500000,
      "pretaxCashAfterDebtService": -3777011
    },
    {
      "months": 12,
      "firstYearRevenue": 0,
      "cashOperating": -2000000,
      "interest": 3000000,
      "principal": 7500000,
      "pretaxCashAfterDebtService": -12500000
    }
  ],
  "delayBreakEvenMonths": 3.40202974003521,
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "scenario": "Bear",
      "months": 12,
      "successes": 1.5,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.1,
      "computeEfficiency": 2,
      "variableResource": 0.8250000000000001,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.75,
      "revenue": 1.125,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Bear",
      "months": 24,
      "successes": 2,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.2,
      "computeEfficiency": 4,
      "variableResource": 0.6,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.55,
      "revenue": 1.1,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Bear",
      "months": 36,
      "successes": 2.5,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.3,
      "computeEfficiency": 8,
      "variableResource": 0.40625,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.4,
      "revenue": 1,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Base",
      "months": 12,
      "successes": 2,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.2,
      "computeEfficiency": 2,
      "variableResource": 1.2,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.8,
      "revenue": 1.6,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Base",
      "months": 24,
      "successes": 4,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.4,
      "computeEfficiency": 4,
      "variableResource": 1.4,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.65,
      "revenue": 2.6,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Base",
      "months": 36,
      "successes": 7,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.6,
      "computeEfficiency": 8,
      "variableResource": 1.4000000000000001,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.55,
      "revenue": 3.8500000000000005,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Bull",
      "months": 12,
      "successes": 3,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.3,
      "computeEfficiency": 2,
      "variableResource": 1.9500000000000002,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.85,
      "revenue": 2.55,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Bull",
      "months": 24,
      "successes": 7,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 1.7,
      "computeEfficiency": 4,
      "variableResource": 2.975,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.7,
      "revenue": 4.8999999999999995,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "Bull",
      "months": 36,
      "successes": 15,
      "tokensPerSuccess": 2.2,
      "computeEfficiency": 8,
      "variableResource": 4.125,
      "pricePerSuccess": 0.6,
      "revenue": 9,
      "evidence": "HYPOTHETICAL"
    }
  ],
  "staticCohortScenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Bear",
      "billableUtilization": 0.6,
      "realizedPrice": 2,
      "hours": 5150880,
      "itMW": 0.8599999999999999,
      "facilityMW": 1.0319999999999998,
      "mwh": 9040.319999999998,
      "revenue": 10301760,
      "variable": 772632,
      "electricity": 904031.9999999998,
      "fixed": 2000000,
      "cashOperating": 6625096,
      "annualReplacement": 10666666.666666666,
      "residual": -4041570.666666666,
      "breakEvenPrice": 2.7846369293531716,
      "breakEvenBillableUtilization": 0.85447684195238
    },
    {
      "name": "Base",
      "billableUtilization": 0.75,
      "realizedPrice": 3,
      "hours": 6438600,
      "itMW": 0.8599999999999999,
      "facilityMW": 1.0319999999999998,
      "mwh": 9040.319999999998,
      "revenue": 19315800,
      "variable": 965790,
      "electricity": 904031.9999999998,
      "fixed": 2000000,
      "cashOperating": 15445978,
      "annualReplacement": 10666666.666666666,
      "residual": 4779311.333333334,
      "breakEvenPrice": 2.2577095434825374,
      "breakEvenBillableUtilization": 0.5546604061796151
    },
    {
      "name": "Bull",
      "billableUtilization": 0.9,
      "realizedPrice": 3.5,
      "hours": 7726320,
      "itMW": 0.8599999999999999,
      "facilityMW": 1.0319999999999998,
      "mwh": 9040.319999999998,
      "revenue": 27042120,
      "variable": 1158948,
      "electricity": 904031.9999999998,
      "fixed": 2000000,
      "cashOperating": 22979140,
      "annualReplacement": 10666666.666666666,
      "residual": 12312473.333333334,
      "breakEvenPrice": 1.906424619568781,
      "breakEvenBillableUtilization": 0.4718752709289263
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Annual replacement provision is a normalization, not actual FCF. Do not subtract it and depreciation again as separate cash spending.",
    "Finite four-year IRR example sells remaining facility at assumed straight-line book value and disposes IT for zero; no operating business terminal multiple, no extension beyond four years. Neither residual value is observed.",
    "IRR uses actual initial capital at time0, level cash operations, positive taxable income, straight-line accounting depreciation, zero working-capital change, no growth/maintenance capex beyond cash costs, no financing fees. It is a separate finite-life teaching example, not a company forecast.",
    "Project IRR excludes financing. Equity IRR includes initial debt, principal, interest and interest tax shield. Interest is not subtracted twice.",
    "Delay stress holds fixed cash cost and debt schedule for full year, assumes no billings/variable energy before acceptance, no loan grace or added construction capex. Cash after debt service is pretax and before future replacement.",
    "Power/activity is independent of billable utilization. Billed utilization includes paid reserved capacity, so it can exceed physical activity. Static sensitivities hold power fixed deliberately; unsold capacity does not imply zero electricity.",
    "Scenario task prices are realized price per success, not raw token prices. Cache/hardware/software efficiency is combined once; no paid share or billing data is inferred."
  ]
}