{
  "title": "Vistra / Luminant Odessa and TCDC allocation sensitivities",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "information_cutoff": "2026-11-07",
  "currency": "USD",
  "status": "Illustrative Ephesus scenarios; not disclosed contract earnings or expansion commitments",
  "assumptions": {
    "capacity_reference_mw": 1180,
    "capacity_rating_note": "Vistra approximate net winter rating; actual output varies with conditions",
    "disclosed_quantity_min_mw": 200,
    "disclosed_quantity_max_mw": 207,
    "hours_per_year": 8760,
    "utilization": 0.9,
    "tcdc_price_usd_per_mwh": 60,
    "alternative_price_usd_per_mwh": 45,
    "ordinary_variable_cost_usd_per_mwh": 25,
    "illustrative_heat_rate_mmbtu_per_mwh": 7,
    "illustrative_gas_price_usd_per_mmbtu": 3,
    "illustrative_other_variable_cost_usd_per_mwh": 4,
    "headline_additional_recurring_cost_usd_per_mwh": 0,
    "expanded_total_allocations_mw": [
      400,
      600,
      800
    ]
  },
  "formulas": {
    "energy_mwh": "allocated_mw * 8760 * utilization",
    "sales_usd": "energy_mwh * sales_price_usd_per_mwh",
    "contribution_usd": "energy_mwh * (sales_price_usd_per_mwh - ordinary_variable_cost_usd_per_mwh)",
    "incremental_contribution_usd": "(expanded_tcdc_mw - 207) * 8760 * utilization * (tcdc_price - equivalent_alternative_value - added_recurring_supply_cost)"
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Capital recovery, fixed costs, taxes, financing and project-equity value excluded.",
    "Same total generation and ordinary variable costs assumed across allocations.",
    "973 MW is an arithmetic remainder, not verified available or merchant capacity.",
    "90% utilization is neither actual plant dispatch nor a verified minimum customer take.",
    "Alternative sources and ERCOT may supply the PPA; this is consolidated seller analysis, not standalone plant accounts.",
    "No scenario probabilities assigned; future expansion terms may differ from the existing agreement."
  ],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "tcdc_mw": 207,
      "capacity_outside_tcdc_mw": 973,
      "tcdc_capacity_share": 0.17542372881355933,
      "tcdc_energy_mwh": 1631988.0,
      "other_energy_mwh": 7671132.0,
      "tcdc_sales_usd": 97919280.0,
      "other_sales_usd": 345200940.0,
      "combined_sales_usd": 443120220.0,
      "tcdc_contribution_usd": 57119580.0,
      "other_contribution_usd": 153422640.0,
      "combined_contribution_usd": 210542220.0,
      "tcdc_premium_vs_equivalent_sales_usd": 24479820.0,
      "added_contribution_vs_207_usd": 0.0
    },
    {
      "tcdc_mw": 400,
      "capacity_outside_tcdc_mw": 780,
      "tcdc_capacity_share": 0.3389830508474576,
      "tcdc_energy_mwh": 3153600.0,
      "other_energy_mwh": 6149520.0,
      "tcdc_sales_usd": 189216000.0,
      "other_sales_usd": 276728400.0,
      "combined_sales_usd": 465944400.0,
      "tcdc_contribution_usd": 110376000.0,
      "other_contribution_usd": 122990400.0,
      "combined_contribution_usd": 233366400.0,
      "tcdc_premium_vs_equivalent_sales_usd": 47304000.0,
      "added_contribution_vs_207_usd": 22824180.0
    },
    {
      "tcdc_mw": 600,
      "capacity_outside_tcdc_mw": 580,
      "tcdc_capacity_share": 0.5084745762711864,
      "tcdc_energy_mwh": 4730400.0,
      "other_energy_mwh": 4572720.0,
      "tcdc_sales_usd": 283824000.0,
      "other_sales_usd": 205772400.0,
      "combined_sales_usd": 489596400.0,
      "tcdc_contribution_usd": 165564000.0,
      "other_contribution_usd": 91454400.0,
      "combined_contribution_usd": 257018400.0,
      "tcdc_premium_vs_equivalent_sales_usd": 70956000.0,
      "added_contribution_vs_207_usd": 46476180.0
    },
    {
      "tcdc_mw": 800,
      "capacity_outside_tcdc_mw": 380,
      "tcdc_capacity_share": 0.6779661016949152,
      "tcdc_energy_mwh": 6307200.0,
      "other_energy_mwh": 2995920.0,
      "tcdc_sales_usd": 378432000.0,
      "other_sales_usd": 134816400.0,
      "combined_sales_usd": 513248400.0,
      "tcdc_contribution_usd": 220752000.0,
      "other_contribution_usd": 59918400.0,
      "combined_contribution_usd": 280670400.0,
      "tcdc_premium_vs_equivalent_sales_usd": 94608000.0,
      "added_contribution_vs_207_usd": 70128180.0
    }
  ],
  "premium_sensitivities": [
    {
      "tcdc_mw": 400,
      "additional_mw": 193,
      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": -10,
      "additional_energy_mwh": 1521612.0,
      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": -15216120.0
    },
    {
      "tcdc_mw": 400,
      "additional_mw": 193,
      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": -5,
      "additional_energy_mwh": 1521612.0,
      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": -7608060.0
    },
    {
      "tcdc_mw": 400,
      "additional_mw": 193,
      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": 0,
      "additional_energy_mwh": 1521612.0,
      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": 0.0
    },
    {
      "tcdc_mw": 400,
      "additional_mw": 193,
      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": 5,
      "additional_energy_mwh": 1521612.0,
      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": 7608060.0
    },
    {
      "tcdc_mw": 400,
      "additional_mw": 193,
      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": 10,
      "additional_energy_mwh": 1521612.0,
      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": 15216120.0
    },
    {
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      "additional_mw": 193,
      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": 15,
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      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": 22824180.0
    },
    {
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      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": 20,
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      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": 30432240.0
    },
    {
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      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": 25,
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      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": 38040300.0
    },
    {
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      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": 30,
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      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": 45648360.0
    },
    {
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      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": -10,
      "additional_energy_mwh": 3098412.0,
      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": -30984120.0
    },
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      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": -15492060.0
    },
    {
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      "effective_premium_usd_per_mwh": 0,
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      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": 0.0
    },
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    },
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
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    },
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      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": -46752120.0
    },
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      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": -23376060.0
    },
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      "additional_energy_mwh": 4675212.0,
      "additional_annual_contribution_usd": 0.0
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  ]
}