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SpaceX is a vertically integrated launch, satellite-connectivity, artificial-intelligence, and compute-infrastructure company. Following the 2026 xAI acquisition, its reported segments are Space, Connectivity, and AI; Ephesus Research further separates AI Infrastructure from AI Applications for valuation.
Profile status
Current preliminary coverage uses the v2.0.1 probability-weighted SOTP as the primary valuation framework. Installed nameplate compute, facility power, commissioned compute, contracted capacity, billable capacity, and utilization are tracked separately and should not be treated as interchangeable.
Updated Aug 8, 2026
Gross power capacity
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Illustrative · current verification required
Contracted capacity
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Illustrative · current verification required
Development pipeline
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Illustrative · current verification required
Profile overview
SpaceX is a vertically integrated launch, satellite-connectivity, artificial-intelligence, and compute-infrastructure company. Following the 2026 xAI acquisition, its reported segments are Space, Connectivity, and AI; Ephesus Research further separates AI Infrastructure from AI Applications for valuation.
The company combines substantial cash and marketable securities, Starlink operating cash flow, debt, finance leases, AI-hardware arrangements, customer receipts, and potential project or equity capital. The model keeps financing flows outside FCFF and separately identifies external funding requirements and dilution.
Asset map
| Project | Location | Stage | Gross capacity | Contracted capacity | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colossus | Memphis, Tennessee | Operating | 130 MW | — | Filed historical benchmark of roughly 100,000 H100-class GPUs and approximately 130 MW of nameplate compute built in 122 days. The MW figure is compute draw, not gross facility generation. |
| Colossus II — first cluster | Memphis, Tennessee / Southaven, Mississippi | Operating | 210 MW | — | Filed historical benchmark of roughly 110,000 GB200 GPUs and approximately 210 MW of nameplate compute built in 91 days; allocation includes external and internal AI workloads. |
| Colossus II — second cluster | Memphis, Tennessee / Southaven, Mississippi | Operating / ramp | 220 MW | — | Filed historical benchmark of roughly 110,000 GB300 GPUs and approximately 220 MW of nameplate compute built in 64 days. |
| 2027 terrestrial AI expansion | Multiple disclosed and undisclosed sites | Management target / development | — | — | Management targets year-end 2027 installed compute closer to 10 GW than 5 GW and has discussed a much larger power-and-cooling pipeline. The model does not convert that pipeline into named, billable capacity without site, hardware, commissioning, and customer evidence. |
| Terafab | Texas | Initial funded phase / long-range manufacturing option | — | — | Reported initial joint Tesla/SpaceX investment of $16.8 billion. The model gives credit only through possible future capex-per-watt improvement and includes no separate chip-sales or robotics revenue. |
| Starmind | Orbital | Technical target / option value | — | — | Prospective orbital-compute system kept outside the terrestrial DCF. Value is probability-weighted through technical, scalable-deployment, and commercial-adoption gates. |
Capital structure
The demonstration history is included to make dilution visible beside enterprise-value growth. Replace it with current basic and fully diluted reconciliations before launch.
Latest material revision
Aug 8, 2026 · SPCX
Published the probability-weighted SOTP as the primary SpaceX valuation, with separate DCFs for Space, Connectivity, AI Infrastructure, and AI Applications plus a milestone-gated Starmind option. Added a 5%-weighted Elon Case, institutional and management-claim audits, vintage-based hardware refresh, corrected dilution, recurring stock-based compensation, normalized terminal taxes, explicit funding warnings, and a common-equity floor for probability weighting.
Previous
Consolidated FCFF DCF with premature annual refresh reserve, raw negative-equity probability weighting, and no separately auditable Elon Case or primary segment SOTP.
Revised
$27.86/share probability-weighted SOTP: Bear $0.00 at 20%, Base $0.00 at 50%, Bull $65.47 at 25%, and Elon Case $229.92 at 5%.
Reason
SpaceX's launch, connectivity, AI infrastructure, application, and orbital-option businesses have different capital intensity, risk, terminal economics, and evidence quality. The repaired framework prevents mature Connectivity value from being obscured by AI cash burn while suppressing invalid terminal value and preserving funding risk.
Source
SpaceX v2.0.1 workbook source audit S01–S52, led by the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and official Q2 transcript
Estimated effect
Changes the primary framework and reader interpretation. The zero-floored expected value is $27.86/share versus the $133.11 reference price; negative raw Bear/Base values remain visible as funding-burden diagnostics, and the Elon Case still requires approximately $177.9 billion of external capital in 2028 after modeled equity issuance.
Public spreadsheets
SPCX · Aerospace, satellite connectivity, and artificial intelligence
This model values SpaceX's major businesses separately, subtracts the capital and hardware replacement needed to build them, and then combines Bear, Base, Bull and Elon outcomes using explicit probability weights. Negative raw equity values remain visible as funding warnings, but common equity is floored at zero when the probability-weighted per-share result is calculated.
Question this model answers
What could SpaceX's common equity be worth when Connectivity, Space, AI Infrastructure, AI Applications and orbital optionality are valued according to their own economics?
Base estimate per share
US$0.00
Outcomes shown
4
Published analysis
SPCX
A current probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts DCF based on SpaceX's filed segment results, disclosed AI contracts, buildout targets, capital requirements, dilution, institutional market checks, and an explicitly low-probability Elon Case.
Primary-source archive
SPCX · Aug 4, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Reports the xAI common-control acquisition presentation, Space, Connectivity and AI segment results, H1 operating cash flow and capex, cash, securities, debt, lease obligations, backlog, stock compensation, awards, and reported shares.
Review notes
Primary source of record for filed historical financials. Workbook IDs S01-S11, S21, S47-S48 map principally to this filing and its cited ownership disclosure.
Relevant pages: Cover; financial statements; cash-flow statement; segment note; debt and leases; commitments; backlog and concentration; EPS and awards; subsequent events.
SPCX · Aug 4, 2026 · Global
Relevant finding
Contains management's year-end compute targets, power-and-cooling pipeline, current payback claim, additional cloud-contract disclosure, December ARR statement, 2030 revenue aspiration, and longer-shot SpaceX claims.
Review notes
Official management statements are classified as guidance, claims, or speculation rather than audited facts. Workbook IDs S12-S13, S20, S22, S27-S29, S31 and S35 use this source.
Relevant pages: Management discussion and Q&A on compute, AI pricing, revenue aspirations, Starlink V3, Starship, Starmind and financing.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Describes the consolidated company, AI platform, application businesses, customer concentration, risk factors and pending transaction context used to define the SOTP segments.
Review notes
The website date reflects the model research cutoff where the exact filing date was not separately carried into the publication draft. Filing accession and SEC metadata control. Workbook ID S34 uses this source.
Relevant pages: Business; AI platform; Grok, X and applications; risk factors; capitalization; offering and acquisition disclosures.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Reports approximate size, hardware, and construction time for the Colossus and Colossus II clusters used as historical build-speed benchmarks rather than proof of future repeatability.
Review notes
The website date reflects the model research cutoff; SEC filing metadata controls. Workbook IDs S16-S18 map to this filing.
Relevant pages: AI Infrastructure and Colossus development discussion.
SPCX · May 1, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Discloses 325,000 NVIDIA GPUs plus supporting infrastructure and approximately $1.25 billion of steady-state monthly fees, with a 90-day termination mechanism after the initial period.
Review notes
Workbook ID S14. The exact filing metadata controls if the placeholder month-start date differs from the SEC filing day.
Relevant pages: Capacity, fees, service period and termination provisions.
SPCX · May 1, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Discloses 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs plus related components and approximately $920 million of steady-state monthly fees after ramp, with termination rights after December 2026.
Review notes
Workbook ID S15. The exact filing metadata controls if the placeholder month-start date differs from the SEC filing day.
Relevant pages: Ramp, capacity, fees, delivery remedies and termination provisions.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Provides the filed basis for the pending all-stock Cursor transaction and its approximately $60 billion implied value; cash flows and shares are included by scenario factor.
Review notes
Workbook ID S19. The website date reflects the model research cutoff; SEC filing metadata controls.
Relevant pages: Transaction description, expected consideration and closing conditions.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · Space
Relevant finding
States a current design target of 75 kW per ton, implying 75 GW for one million tons; thermal, radiation, bandwidth, repair and cost remain milestone-gated.
Review notes
Workbook ID S32. Technical target is not evidence of commercial cost competitiveness.
Relevant pages: Starmind mass, power-density and deployment description; accessed August 7, 2026.
SPCX · Aug 6, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Reports an initial $16.8 billion Tesla/SpaceX investment and a much larger aspirational output goal; the Elon Case uses possible capex-per-watt improvement but no chip-sales revenue.
Review notes
Workbook ID S33. The funded first phase and aspirational long-run scale are kept separate.
Relevant pages: Article discussion of initial investment, ownership and long-run production aspiration.
SPCX · Jul 1, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Shows approximately 1.302 billion restricted Class B shares already issued and therefore already included in the reported cover count rather than added again as incremental dilution.
Review notes
Workbook ID S47. Month-start date is a publication placeholder where the exact filing day was not carried into the draft; SEC metadata controls.
Relevant pages: Beneficial-ownership table and restricted Class B share footnotes.
Capacity, contract, financing, and share-count fields should be traceable to dated sources.