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Search company analysis, valuation work, project economics, financing research, risk reviews, and methodology notes. Each publication exposes its status, assumptions, source coverage, limitations, and revision history.
14 of 14 publications
IREN · NUAI · WULF
This report examines the credit channel linking frontier-model economics to data-center and power-development finance. Version 1.1 adds two explicit circuit breakers: proprietary providers can retain disproportionate monetization after losing token share, and stronger technology balance sheets can substitute for weaker standalone lab credit. The likely near-term result is financing bifurcation rather than uniform contraction.
Circle · Tether · Visa · Mastercard · JPMorgan · DTCC · Broadridge · Coinbase · Robinhood · CME Group · Cboe · Nasdaq
The evidence supports a material market-infrastructure shift, but not literal QE or a systemic crypto-backed bank-credit multiplier. Effects are concentrated in short-term Treasury demand, dollar distribution, payments and collateral mobility.
Ucore Rare Metals
The Louisiana SMC is Ucore's principal operating asset, but it is not the entire portfolio. This five-year SOTP separately values Louisiana, a risked Canadian Sm/Gd SMC, Bokan-Dotson Ridge, external RapidSX optionality, corporate cash and overhead, then models the funding and dilution required to reach commercial scale.
IREN
A current preliminary cohort-cash DCF mapped to the live Google Drive workbook. The analysis distinguishes IREN's official capacity stages, cohort financing, five-year primary GPU life, non-core post-contract tail economics, residual support, revenue sharing, and public community-model reference outputs.
SPCX
A current probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts DCF based on SpaceX's filed segment results, disclosed AI contracts, buildout targets, capital requirements, dilution, institutional market checks, and an explicitly low-probability Elon Case.
Pulsar Helium
A source-backed valuation of Pulsar Helium's Topaz project that distinguishes contingent and prospective resources from reserves, short-duration test rates from sustainable commercial feed, the reserved equipment package from all-in installed cost, and project funding from common-shareholder value.
NUAI
A current preliminary TCDC model, mapped to the live Google Drive workbook, showing why nameplate capacity, tenant obligations, project financing, ownership, promote economics, and dilution must be modeled separately.
IREN · WULF · CIFR · APLD · NUAI
A practical framework for understanding when higher long-duration yields should compress infrastructure values and when contracted NOI growth can offset part of the pressure.
APLD · IREN · WULF · CIFR · NUAI
A practical framework for modeling capital draws, construction-period interest, contingencies, completion support, and dilution before stabilization.
IREN · NUAI · WULF · CIFR · APLD
A reader's guide to phase-level DCFs, execution probabilities, timing, financing, dilution, and terminal value.
NUAI · WULF · CIFR · IREN
A methodology for distinguishing national reserves from the regional, hourly, and infrastructure-constrained gas deliverability that actually matters to data-center generation.
IREN · NUAI · WULF · CIFR · APLD
A six-gate framework for assigning different present values to operating, contracted, funded, permitted, and conceptual capacity.
IREN · NUAI
A precise explanation of why a full-build output can be valid without implying that the company is worth that amount today.
WULF · CIFR · IREN
A demonstration peer analysis that normalizes capacity definitions, contract structures, capex responsibility, financing, and dilution before comparing valuation.