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SPCX · Aerospace, satellite connectivity, and artificial intelligence
This model values SpaceX's major businesses separately, subtracts the capital and hardware replacement needed to build them, and then combines Bear, Base, Bull and Elon outcomes using explicit probability weights. Negative raw equity values remain visible as funding warnings, but common equity is floored at zero when the probability-weighted per-share result is calculated.
Probability-weighted SOTP estimate
US$27.86
Probability-weighted across 4 named outcomes; weights are research judgments, not statistical guarantees.
Base-case common equity result
US$0.00
Common equity is floored at zero here; the workbook preserves the negative raw Base value as a funding-burden diagnostic.
This model values SpaceX's major businesses separately, subtracts the capital and hardware replacement needed to build them, and then combines Bear, Base, Bull and Elon outcomes using explicit probability weights. Negative raw equity values remain visible as funding warnings, but common equity is floored at zero when the probability-weighted per-share result is calculated.
What could SpaceX's common equity be worth when Connectivity, Space, AI Infrastructure, AI Applications and orbital optionality are valued according to their own economics?
A single consolidated multiple would mix mature subscription cash flow, launch economics, short-cancellable GPU contracts, application risk and pre-commercial orbital options. This model gives each segment its own forecast, discount rate, terminal treatment and execution probability, while hardware replacement follows deployment cohorts and the consolidated DCF remains a reconciliation check.
The headline result is a probability-weighted SOTP estimate, not a forecast of the next market price. A zero Base-case common-equity value means the modeled expansion requires more present-value capital than it creates under those assumptions; the low-probability Elon Case shows what would need to align for substantially greater upside.
A DCF estimates present value from future cash flows. This page may also use project probabilities, cap rates, net asset value, or sum-of-the-parts methods where they fit the asset better. The model type is shown above and explained here before the detailed tables.
This probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model values SpaceX as several economically different businesses rather than as one neocloud. The result is most useful as a test of capital intensity, funding and market expectations. It is less reliable as a precise valuation estimate because the AI buildout, normalized pricing and application economics remain unusually uncertain.
Filed facts or attributable management statements used to anchor the model.
Editable judgments that translate disclosed activity into segment cash flow.
Questions that public evidence does not yet resolve.
Probability-weighted value
$27.86
Bear and Base are floored at zero for common-equity weighting; their negative raw values remain funding diagnostics.
Market reference
$133.11
Workbook reference on August 7, 2026; not a live quote.
Bull case
$65.47
Strong execution still falls below the reference price after refresh capex and dilution.
Elon Case
$229.92
A 5%-weighted edge case, not management guidance or the central forecast.
Exact workbook values in USD billions. Parentheses indicate negative values before the common-equity floor.
| Segment | Bear | Base | Bull | Elon | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space | (34.050) | (45.414) | 25.331 | 7.998 | (22.785) |
| Connectivity | 45.034 | 232.141 | 610.905 | 1,275.956 | 341.601 |
| AI Infrastructure | (523.264) | (468.281) | 49.902 | 1,554.102 | (248.612) |
| AI Applications | (20.127) | (29.553) | 25.013 | 271.495 | 1.026 |
| Orbital option | 0.000 | 32.400 | 183.750 | 512.000 | 87.738 |
| Total enterprise value | (532.407) | (278.708) | 894.901 | 3,621.550 | 158.967 |
Zero-floored value per share: Bear $0.00; Base $0.00; Bull $65.47; Elon $229.92; probability-weighted $27.86.
Nameplate compute is installed GPU power draw. Gross facility power also includes cooling and electrical overhead and is shown only where the scenario models it.
| Period | Evidence status | Compute GW | Facility GW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | Actual | 0.4 | — |
| Q1 2026 | Actual | 1.0 | — |
| Q2 2026 | Actual | 1.4 | — |
| Year-end 2026 | Management target | >2.0 | — |
| Year-end 2027 | Bear · model inference | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Year-end 2027 | Base scenario | 8.0 | 9.6 |
| Year-end 2027 | Bull scenario | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| Year-end 2027 | Elon Case | 9.0 | 9.9 |
Bear facility power is inferred using 1.20 power usage effectiveness (PUE). Base uses 1.20 PUE; Bull and Elon use 1.10 PUE. Historical and year-end 2026 facility power is not disclosed here.
Connectivity is the model's mature cash engine. Space and AI Applications add conditional value, while Orbital AI begins as a probability-weighted option. In the Base case, however, AI Infrastructure consumes more present value through construction, hardware replacement and financing than the mature businesses create.
This is why the model separates ARR, EBITDA and free cash flow. Building 8–10 GW can be an operational success while still producing a weak investment outcome if revenue per MW normalizes before the capital base is recovered.
The model's edge case reaches approximately $1.001 trillion of 2030 revenue and $649 billion of 2035 free cash flow. Those figures are scenario outputs—not reported guidance—and depend on the following conditions aligning.
Hardware replacement is scheduled by deployment cohort instead of charged as a premature blanket reserve. The model also removes double-counted issued shares, corrects dilution sensitivity, expenses recurring stock compensation, normalizes terminal taxes and respects each disclosed contract's earliest termination window.
The 26-tab workbook reports an OK control status after formula, source-link and funding checks. That verifies internal consistency; it does not verify uncertain commercial outcomes.
Read the revision historyPublic work from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi, BlackRock and Synergy Research is used to test AI-market size, power availability, capital requirements and plausible industry growth. It does not establish SpaceX's share of that market or validate an issuer valuation conclusion.
Paywalled initiation reports and secondary descriptions remain labeled as non-reproducible. Company filings, contracts and attributable management statements take precedence wherever they conflict with outside narratives.
Review the source mapEphesus Research authored the valuation and scenario probabilities. SpaceX filings, the prospectus, the Q2 earnings transcript and disclosed customer agreements anchor company-specific facts. SemiAnalysis and institutional publications are separately identified as secondary evidence or external market research. The public workbook, source records, assumptions, limitations and dated revisions are available for independent review.
Use these sections in order or jump directly to the part you need. The plain-language explanation comes first; the detailed assumptions, formulas, sources, and change log remain available underneath it.
Use the JSON and CSV files for structured review and data reuse. Public spreadsheet downloads remain disabled until sharing is verified.
Model overview
Main question
What could SpaceX's common equity be worth when Connectivity, Space, AI Infrastructure, AI Applications and orbital optionality are valued according to their own economics?
Technical approach
Probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts discounted cash flow
Company or asset
SPCX
Estimate date
Jun 30, 2026
Years modeled
Quarterly Q3 2026–Q4 2028; annual 2029–2035
Currency
USD
Diluted shares used
14,303.7 million
Net debt / (cash) used
-US$53,243.00 million
Research status
Current preliminary source-backed model
Model author
Ephesus Research
Last updated
Aug 8, 2026
Linked sources
28 records
Version
2.0.1
4 possible outcomes
The base case is the central set of assumptions, not a guaranteed result. Compare every named scenario to see how delays, weaker economics, stronger execution, financing, or other major changes affect the estimate. Any edge case is deliberately kept separate from the central forecast. The weights are model judgments and should change when the evidence changes.
| Scenario | Business valueEnterprise value | Value for shareholdersEquity value | Estimated value per share | Weight in blended result | What has to happen | Main risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear case | -US$532,407.00m | -US$479,164.00m | US$0.00 | 20% |
|
|
| Base case | -US$278,708.00m | -US$225,465.00m | US$0.00 | 50% |
|
|
| Bull case | US$894,901m | US$948,144m | US$65.47 | 25% |
|
|
| Elon Case | US$3,621,550m | US$3,674,793m | US$230 | 5% |
|
|
Inputs behind the result
Start with inputs marked low confidence. Those are the assumptions most likely to need more evidence and can be more important than the final headline number. Each row shows whether the value is a fact, company statement, analyst estimate, model assumption, or inference.
| Input | Value used | Case | Evidence type | Where it came from | Information date | Confidence | Why it matters or what remains uncertain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation date | 2026-06-30 date | All | Fact | SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Jun 30, 2026 | High | Aligned with the latest filed balance sheet; the market-price cross-check is dated August 7, 2026. |
| Market-price cross-check | 133.11 USD/share | All | Fact | Nasdaq market-data cross-check | Aug 7, 2026 | High | Used only as a valuation hurdle; it does not share the model's June 30 balance-sheet date. |
| Reported basic shares outstanding | 13181.78 millions | All | Fact | SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover | Jul 28, 2026 | High | Class A plus Class B; scenario dilution waterfalls add only awards and transactions not already included. |
| Base fully diluted share count | 14303.7 millions | Base | Model Assumption | Filed share and award counts plus v2.0.1 dilution waterfall | Aug 7, 2026 | Medium | Includes scenario-weighted awards, pending EchoStar consideration, and illustrative Cursor consideration without double-counting issued Musk restricted or Mesh shares. |
| Cash, marketable securities, and digital assets | 101107 USD millions | All | Fact | SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Jun 30, 2026 | High | Equity bridge also subtracts debt and pending Spectrum cash consideration. |
| Debt and finance leases | 39364 USD millions | All | Fact | SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Jun 30, 2026 | High | Includes current and long-term carrying value, including AI hardware lease obligations. |
| Space segment discount rate | 11.5 % | All | Model Assumption | Ephesus Research segment risk calibration | Aug 7, 2026 | Medium | Held constant across operating cases to isolate operating differences. |
| Connectivity segment discount rate | 9.5 % | All | Model Assumption | Ephesus Research segment risk calibration | Aug 7, 2026 | Medium | Lower than other segments because recurring subscriptions and government/enterprise contracts are more mature. |
| AI Infrastructure segment discount rate | 13.5 % | All | Model Assumption | Ephesus Research segment risk calibration | Aug 7, 2026 | Medium | Reflects customer concentration, hardware turnover, power delivery, and funding risk. |
| AI Applications segment discount rate | 15 % | All | Model Assumption | Ephesus Research segment risk calibration | Aug 7, 2026 | Medium | Reflects product adoption, competitive, pricing, and monetization risk. |
| Initial all-in AI capex per GW | 50 USD billions/GW | Bear | Analyst Estimate | Ephesus Research scenario assumption | Aug 7, 2026 | Low | Blends silicon, network, facility, power, and contingency pending asset-class disclosure. |
| Initial all-in AI capex per GW | 40 USD billions/GW | Base | Analyst Estimate | Ephesus Research scenario assumption | Aug 7, 2026 | Low | The model applies refresh only to the assumed IT/network share through installation vintages. |
| Initial all-in AI capex per GW | 35 USD billions/GW | Bull | Analyst Estimate | Ephesus Research scenario assumption | Aug 7, 2026 | Low | Requires repeatable construction efficiency and favorable equipment economics. |
| AI IT and network refresh life | 4 years | Bear | Model Assumption | Goldman Sachs asset-life cross-check and Ephesus scenario | Aug 7, 2026 | Medium | Replacement is charged when each installation cohort reaches its modeled life. |
| AI IT and network refresh life | 5 years | Base | Model Assumption | Goldman Sachs asset-life cross-check and Ephesus scenario | Aug 7, 2026 | Medium | Base replacement cost equals 80% of equivalent new IT after cost decline and salvage. |
| AI IT and network refresh life | 6 years | Bull | Model Assumption | Goldman Sachs asset-life cross-check and Ephesus scenario | Aug 7, 2026 | Medium | Bull replacement cost equals 65% of equivalent new IT after cost decline and salvage. |
| Anthropic steady-state monthly cloud fee | 1250 USD millions/month | All | Fact | SEC-filed Anthropic cloud-service disclosure | May 1, 2026 | High | Covers 325,000 GPUs and supporting infrastructure; terminable on 90 days' notice after the initial period. |
| Google steady-state monthly cloud fee | 920 USD millions/month | All | Fact | SEC-filed Google cloud-service disclosure | May 1, 2026 | High | Covers 110,000 GPUs plus supporting components after ramp; terminable on 90 days' notice after December 2026. |
| Elon Case probability weight | 5 % | Custom | Analyst Estimate | Ephesus claim audit of management aspirations | Aug 7, 2026 | Low | Requires multiple independent operating, demand, financing, manufacturing, and orbital milestones to align. |
| Elon Case financing shares | 1500 millions | Custom | Model Assumption | Ephesus Research financing stress | Aug 7, 2026 | Low | Modeled at the $133.11 reference price; a further $177.9 billion 2028 funding gap remains. |
| Base probability-weighted Starmind option value | 32400 USD millions | Base | Speculation | Milestone-gated Ephesus real-option analysis | Aug 7, 2026 | Low | A $300 billion gross option is multiplied by 10.8% joint technical, scale, and commercial success probability. |
Change the assumptions
Each grid changes two assumptions at the same time. Find the row and column matching your view, then read the value where they meet. A wide range of outcomes means the estimate is highly sensitive to those inputs.
Read across or down to choose two assumptions. The value where the row and column meet is the model result under that combination.
Formula includes the model's Base commissioning, acceptance, and external-allocation factors. Exit ARR is a point-in-time run rate, not full-year revenue.
| Change Installed nameplate compute (GW) ↓ and Annual price (USD millions/MW-year) → | 12 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 29.4 | 49 | 61.3 | 73.5 | 98 |
| 6.5 | 34.7 | 57.9 | 72.4 | 86.9 | 115.8 |
| 8 | 42.8 | 71.3 | 89.1 | 106.9 | 142.6 |
| 9 | 48.1 | 80.2 | 100.2 | 120.3 | 160.4 |
| 10 | 53.5 | 89.1 | 111.4 | 133.7 | 178.2 |
Read across or down to choose two assumptions. The value where the row and column meet is the model result under that combination.
Corrected v2.0.1 table converts equity value from billions to millions before dividing by million shares.
| Change Performance-award vesting (%) ↓ and Core equity value (USD billions) → | 1000 | 1500 | 2000 | 2500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 69.98 | 104.97 | 139.97 | 174.96 |
| 25 | 69.95 | 104.92 | 139.89 | 174.87 |
| 50 | 69.91 | 104.87 | 139.82 | 174.78 |
| 75 | 69.88 | 104.81 | 139.75 | 174.69 |
| 100 | 69.84 | 104.76 | 139.68 | 174.6 |
These are not footnotes to ignore. They identify missing evidence, simplified calculations, or events that could make the displayed value incomplete or too high.
Evidence
A source may confirm a reported fact or management plan without proving that the forecast will occur. Open a source card to see what it supports and what remains uncertain.
SPCX · Aug 4, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Reports the xAI common-control acquisition presentation, Space, Connectivity and AI segment results, H1 operating cash flow and capex, cash, securities, debt, lease obligations, backlog, stock compensation, awards, and reported shares.
Review notes
Primary source of record for filed historical financials. Workbook IDs S01-S11, S21, S47-S48 map principally to this filing and its cited ownership disclosure.
Relevant pages: Cover; financial statements; cash-flow statement; segment note; debt and leases; commitments; backlog and concentration; EPS and awards; subsequent events.
SPCX · Aug 4, 2026 · Global
Relevant finding
Contains management's year-end compute targets, power-and-cooling pipeline, current payback claim, additional cloud-contract disclosure, December ARR statement, 2030 revenue aspiration, and longer-shot SpaceX claims.
Review notes
Official management statements are classified as guidance, claims, or speculation rather than audited facts. Workbook IDs S12-S13, S20, S22, S27-S29, S31 and S35 use this source.
Relevant pages: Management discussion and Q&A on compute, AI pricing, revenue aspirations, Starlink V3, Starship, Starmind and financing.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Describes the consolidated company, AI platform, application businesses, customer concentration, risk factors and pending transaction context used to define the SOTP segments.
Review notes
The website date reflects the model research cutoff where the exact filing date was not separately carried into the publication draft. Filing accession and SEC metadata control. Workbook ID S34 uses this source.
Relevant pages: Business; AI platform; Grok, X and applications; risk factors; capitalization; offering and acquisition disclosures.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Reports approximate size, hardware, and construction time for the Colossus and Colossus II clusters used as historical build-speed benchmarks rather than proof of future repeatability.
Review notes
The website date reflects the model research cutoff; SEC filing metadata controls. Workbook IDs S16-S18 map to this filing.
Relevant pages: AI Infrastructure and Colossus development discussion.
SPCX · May 1, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Discloses 325,000 NVIDIA GPUs plus supporting infrastructure and approximately $1.25 billion of steady-state monthly fees, with a 90-day termination mechanism after the initial period.
Review notes
Workbook ID S14. The exact filing metadata controls if the placeholder month-start date differs from the SEC filing day.
Relevant pages: Capacity, fees, service period and termination provisions.
SPCX · May 1, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Discloses 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs plus related components and approximately $920 million of steady-state monthly fees after ramp, with termination rights after December 2026.
Review notes
Workbook ID S15. The exact filing metadata controls if the placeholder month-start date differs from the SEC filing day.
Relevant pages: Ramp, capacity, fees, delivery remedies and termination provisions.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Provides the filed basis for the pending all-stock Cursor transaction and its approximately $60 billion implied value; cash flows and shares are included by scenario factor.
Review notes
Workbook ID S19. The website date reflects the model research cutoff; SEC filing metadata controls.
Relevant pages: Transaction description, expected consideration and closing conditions.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Argues that rapid construction can support a 10 GW 2027 build and scarcity pricing, while also presenting unconfirmed Microsoft offtake and NVIDIA vendor-financing claims excluded from Base.
Review notes
Workbook IDs S23-S25. Retained as an aggressive technical and commercial thesis, not the primary source of record. The URL retains an older headline figure while the live headline refers to $300 billion of ARR.
Relevant pages: Public article and paywalled site/buildout discussion; accessed by the model research cutoff.
Relevant finding
Provides the $133.11 per-share market reference used for the valuation hurdle and reverse-DCF cross-check.
Review notes
Workbook ID S26. The $133.11 reference price is compared with a June 30 balance-sheet valuation date, creating a known date mismatch.
Relevant pages: Historical and current price display for August 7, 2026.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · Space
Relevant finding
States a current design target of 75 kW per ton, implying 75 GW for one million tons; thermal, radiation, bandwidth, repair and cost remain milestone-gated.
Review notes
Workbook ID S32. Technical target is not evidence of commercial cost competitiveness.
Relevant pages: Starmind mass, power-density and deployment description; accessed August 7, 2026.
SPCX · Aug 6, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Reports an initial $16.8 billion Tesla/SpaceX investment and a much larger aspirational output goal; the Elon Case uses possible capex-per-watt improvement but no chip-sales revenue.
Review notes
Workbook ID S33. The funded first phase and aspirational long-run scale are kept separate.
Relevant pages: Article discussion of initial investment, ownership and long-run production aspiration.
SPCX · Jul 1, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Shows approximately 1.302 billion restricted Class B shares already issued and therefore already included in the reported cover count rather than added again as incremental dilution.
Review notes
Workbook ID S47. Month-start date is a publication placeholder where the exact filing day was not carried into the draft; SEC metadata controls.
Relevant pages: Beneficial-ownership table and restricted Class B share footnotes.
Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Explains that vacuum removes convective cooling and requires heat rejection primarily through radiation, supporting a milestone-gated orbital-compute treatment.
Review notes
Workbook ID S49. Access date is used for the living technical page.
Relevant pages: Thermal-control discussion for spacecraft and vacuum environments.
Mar 9, 2026 · Global
Relevant finding
Estimates roughly $2.9 trillion of data-center construction from 2025–2028 and describes funding through corporate cash flow, bonds, asset-backed securities and private capital.
Review notes
Workbook ID S36. Thematic funding research is not a financing commitment to SpaceX.
Relevant pages: Data-center construction requirement and financing-channel discussion.
Aug 5, 2026 · Global
Relevant finding
Frames a $1–2 trillion mid-2030s space economy as plausible but not inevitable, with launch a small share and orbital compute constrained by power, radiation, heat rejection and latency.
Review notes
Workbook ID S37. This is attributable thematic research, not the paywalled issuer initiation report.
Relevant pages: Space-economy sizing, launch share, orbital compute and technical constraints.
May 1, 2026 · Global
Relevant finding
Estimates a multi-trillion-dollar AI infrastructure buildout and describes silicon lives of roughly four to six years, materially shorter than buildings and power assets.
Review notes
Workbook ID S38. Used as an asset-life and market-capex cross-check, not a SpaceX issuer forecast.
Relevant pages: AI infrastructure capex, silicon, buildings, and power-asset life discussion.
Apr 2, 2026 · Global
Relevant finding
Estimates a greater-than-$25 billion 2025 neocloud market approaching $400 billion in 2031; a simple 2027 extrapolation is well below Base and Bull exit ARR.
Review notes
Workbook ID S39. Category definitions may differ from SpaceX's reported AI Infrastructure revenue.
Relevant pages: 2025 market size, 2031 forecast and growth-rate discussion.
Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Projects AI-server electricity use rising from roughly 63 TWh to more than 300 TWh by 2030 and inference overtaking training, supporting explicit physical power gates.
Review notes
Workbook ID S40. Research-cutoff access date is used where the exact document publication day was not carried into the draft.
Relevant pages: AI-server electricity demand and training-versus-inference discussion.
Aug 7, 2026 · Global
Relevant finding
Presents large AI revenue and infrastructure-capex estimates that support category growth but require careful taxonomy to avoid double counting.
Review notes
Workbook ID S41. Research-cutoff access date is used; overlapping TAM categories are not added together.
Relevant pages: AI revenue and infrastructure capex estimates through 2030.
Apr 21, 2026 · Global
Relevant finding
Estimates roughly 148 GW of incremental power capacity may be required by decade-end, reinforcing physical power and financing constraints without constituting a SpaceX commitment.
Review notes
Workbook ID S42. BlackRock has no public SpaceX issuer DCF in the research reviewed.
Relevant pages: AI energy requirement, generation, storage, gas and behind-the-meter capacity discussion.
SPCX · Aug 1, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Secondary reports attribute an Overweight rating and approximately $225–$240 targets to JPMorgan, but full assumptions are unavailable and not used as model inputs.
Review notes
Workbook ID S43. The underlying sell-side report is paywalled; target, timing and rating are non-reproducible cross-checks only.
Relevant pages: Reported JPMorgan rating and target discussion.
SPCX · Jul 1, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Secondary reporting attributes a Buy rating and $235 target to Bank of America and says its DCF extends to 2045, but the WACC, site timing and funding waterfall are not public.
Review notes
Workbook ID S44. The underlying report is paywalled; month-start date is a placeholder and the linked page metadata controls.
Relevant pages: Reported rating, target and long-horizon DCF description.
SPCX · Jul 1, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Secondary reporting attributes a $200 base target and a $900 illustrative long-shot outcome to Citi; the long shot is not reproducible and is used only to frame the low-probability Elon Case.
Review notes
Workbook ID S45. The underlying report is paywalled; month-start date is a placeholder and the linked page metadata controls.
Relevant pages: Reported base and long-shot valuation discussion.
SPCX · Jun 2, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Reports a Morningstar fair-value estimate near $780 billion and a more cautious view of xAI and orbital-compute economics, retained as an independent downside cross-check.
Review notes
Workbook ID S46. Detailed private valuation assumptions were not fully public.
Relevant pages: Reported valuation and skepticism toward orbital data centers and xAI.
Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Provides a comparable operating snapshot of more than $5 billion of revenue, over 850 MW and $66.8 billion of backlog, useful only as a broad reasonableness check.
Review notes
Workbook ID S50. Research-cutoff access date is used. Revenue per MW is only a rough comparison because timing, contracts, utilization and hardware differ.
Relevant pages: FY2025 revenue, active power and backlog discussion.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Presents a Bloomberg-consensus-style 2030 Connectivity cross-check of roughly $107.2 billion revenue, $56 billion operating income and $33.4 billion capex.
Review notes
Workbook ID S51. Research-cutoff access date is used; the figures are a consensus cross-check rather than issuer guidance.
Relevant pages: 2030 Connectivity revenue, operating income and capex estimates.
SPCX · Aug 7, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Secondary reporting attributes a $300 target, a greater-than-$3.3 trillion 2040 revenue path and free cash flow only in 2035 to Morgan Stanley, reinforcing funding and terminal-state risk.
Review notes
Workbook ID S52. Research-cutoff access date is used; underlying assumptions are paywalled and non-reproducible.
Relevant pages: Reported target, 2040 revenue case and free-cash-flow timing.
Feb 1, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Helps audit the claimed $600 billion U.S. carrier backdrop; the combined Big Three consolidated revenue used by the model is closer to $352 billion and includes non-wireless activity.
Review notes
Workbook ID S30. Used with the Verizon and T-Mobile totals carried in the workbook audit; month-start date is a placeholder and SEC metadata controls.
Relevant pages: Consolidated revenue and segment reporting.
Revision history
Material updates are recorded so readers can see which assumption or conclusion changed, why it changed, and how the result was affected.
Aug 8, 2026 · SPCX
Published the probability-weighted SOTP as the primary SpaceX valuation, with separate DCFs for Space, Connectivity, AI Infrastructure, and AI Applications plus a milestone-gated Starmind option. Added a 5%-weighted Elon Case, institutional and management-claim audits, vintage-based hardware refresh, corrected dilution, recurring stock-based compensation, normalized terminal taxes, explicit funding warnings, and a common-equity floor for probability weighting.
Previous
Consolidated FCFF DCF with premature annual refresh reserve, raw negative-equity probability weighting, and no separately auditable Elon Case or primary segment SOTP.
Revised
$27.86/share probability-weighted SOTP: Bear $0.00 at 20%, Base $0.00 at 50%, Bull $65.47 at 25%, and Elon Case $229.92 at 5%.
Reason
SpaceX's launch, connectivity, AI infrastructure, application, and orbital-option businesses have different capital intensity, risk, terminal economics, and evidence quality. The repaired framework prevents mature Connectivity value from being obscured by AI cash burn while suppressing invalid terminal value and preserving funding risk.
Source
SpaceX v2.0.1 workbook source audit S01–S52, led by the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and official Q2 transcript
Estimated effect
Changes the primary framework and reader interpretation. The zero-floored expected value is $27.86/share versus the $133.11 reference price; negative raw Bear/Base values remain visible as funding-burden diagnostics, and the Elon Case still requires approximately $177.9 billion of external capital in 2028 after modeled equity issuance.
Further reading
SPCX
A current probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts DCF based on SpaceX's filed segment results, disclosed AI contracts, buildout targets, capital requirements, dilution, institutional market checks, and an explicitly low-probability Elon Case.
Report a formula error, unsupported assumption, missing source, or unclear explanation. Material corrections are added to the public revision history rather than silently overwritten.